population

The effects of human population size on our standard of living, our environment, and our prospects for long term sustainability

The demise of an Australian Marxist blog site

has disappeared! The now displays the message:

Blog has been removed
Sorry, the blog at jeffrichards.blogspot.com has been removed.
This address is not available for new blogs.

A google search returned a fragment of presumably the last entry on the now non-existent web site : :

This is the last entry in my political diary and blog. This activity has served its ...

I believe I recall elsewhere that the next word in the unfinished sentence was 'purpose'. There was also a link to the full archive of the blog as a pdf document, but the first time I looked the link was broken and the second time I looked I could not even find that record.

Why the author suddenly decided not only to discontinue his diary, but to completely remove it from the Internet, together with the archives, is a mystery. The cost of keeping the blog on the Internet as it was would either have been nothing or very little. Others, including myself, who had commented on the site and may have mislaid their local backups will find that their contributions have been lost forever, and any links back to his site will now be broken.

Dialogue in regard to the finiteness of our planet, population and immigration needed.

As referred to in , I had posted comments to his web site. A few of these sought to challenge the cornucopianism of Marxism which causes most Marxist adherents to either advocate open borders or, at best, to discourage discussion of the issue. None of my posts drew a response from the author personally. This has been surprisingly typical of Marxists, in spite of the claims of Marxism to be the most advanced of all political philosophies and most able to sustain critical scrutiny by other philosophical schools.

Another web-site of a person who sees value in Marxist thought, but who is, nevertheless critical of its unthinking cornucopianism of many of its adherents, maintained by Sandy Irvine of the United Kingdom. It's home page states (emphases included are my own):

This website promotes the cause of ecological sustainability. By that, we mean that the conservation of environmental systems, biodiversity and bioregional human cultures must be society's overriding goal. We are committed to a politics for life on earth, all life not just its human form. This politics is founded on an ethos of 'enoughness', sharing the Earth's bounty, rather than the avaricious 'moreness' that dominates contemporary culture.

To put it another way, we oppose the suicidal politics of unlimited expectations and open-ended entitlements, be they under the guise of the so-called 'free' market', 'mixed' economies or centrally planned economic systems. We are therefore against unrestrained population growth and the pursuit of open-ended economic expansion. We similarly dissent from the modern cult of salvation through technological miracles. Equally, we seek to unmask fraudulent goals and policies such as so-called sustainable development.

Tragically, most organisations and indeed large sections of the general public are living in a fantasy world. They behave as if it were possible for society to continue on it present course without disaster. They are living as if there were no tomorrow, thus ensuring that the future will be bleak indeed. The overriding and all-embracing issue today is that the foundations of life on Earth are crumbling. The only truly realistic politics is one that address that reality.

The primary challenge of our times, then, is to cut down the scale of human activity and live within natural limits, to 'think shrink'. All else is a matter, as Fritz Schumacher once put it, of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Overall, our culture, our technologies, our political and economic systems, must be rooted in the checks and balances of life on Earth ... and the sooner we begin to make the transition, the easier and more satisfactory it is likely to be.

The ecological alternative -- a society sustainably in balance with the Earth's capacities, patterns and rhythms -- is also one which most likely a way of life more satisfying and, indeed, more convivial than the destructive rat race that is the hallmark of contemporary lifestyles. Ecocentrism -- Earth first -- not egocentrism must be the watchword.

So if one trail has gone cold, at least there is now another one which is very warm.

How do you know if you are a soft Green?

So you think you might have come down with the disease but you don’t know exactly what a “soft green” is?

A soft green is a dupe of the corporate agenda who sincerely believes that he is on the side of the angels. A noble, selfless crusader for the “environment” whose real priority however is human, not animal or environmental rights. He thinks of himself as an internationalist. But he can more accurately be described as a globalist, for he promotes, in the name of immigrant and refugee rights, the shifting of cheap labour from countries of low consumption to countries of high consumption. In so doing, he kills two birds with one stone. He undercuts the wages of local labour while he greatly multiplies the ecological footprint of the newcomers at the same time, damaging both the global environment and the domestic one which seems to trouble him least. Opposition to his open borders mentality is met with cries of racism.

Are you infected with this variant of hypocrisy? Then take this test.

You know when yo are a soft Green when:

  1. You think that population growth plays no role whatsoever in environmental degradation. Even though America has doubled its population since 1950 and will go from 301 million to 438 million by 2050 if immigration and birth rates are unchanged, and Canada will double its population in 70 years, you don’t care.
  2. You don’t care because technological efficiencies and improvements will lessen our ecological footprint. Trouble is you never heard of the Jevons Paradox or the concept that the number of ecological “feet” might increase to wipe out those efficiency gains.
  3. You don’t care because however many more people there are, all we need to do is consume less. Live “greener lifestyles” to make room for more immigrants and newborns. Problem here is that you have to be dead or unborn to have a zero footprint.
  4. You don’t care because with “smart growth” we can shoe-horn half the world’s population into this country without ecological impact. Just confine them behind tightly defined urban boundaries in very, very, dense housing developments and all greenbelts, farmland, and wetlands will be safe from human intrusion. The difficulty here is that “smart growth” has failed in Portland, Oregon and other localities. And the folks confined in those sheep pens and high rises still consume and still generate wastes and emit GHG. No matter where they are settled, it is the number, not the distribution of people, that is ecologically decisive.
  5. You don’t care because you believe that by working to set aside nature reserves and parks wildlife can be conserved alongside economic and population growth. Wrong again.There is no sanctuary from growth. Even Yosemite was violated when Congress decided to yield to mining interests. But if reserves could be guaranteed safety from development and incursion, it would not slow the intensity of the development of lands outside the reserves. In fact, population growth increases overall loss of biodiversity even as park dedication increases.
  6. You don’t care because if population growth does indeed play a role in environmental degradation, it is a subsidiary role, as Monbiot claims, and it plays that role in distant undeveloped countries. Because you see, overpopulation is a GLOBAL PROBLEM, demanding GLOBAL solutions. Meaning that it is not anything we should do anything about here. Garrett Hardin had two ripostes to those tired clichés. One was that to say overpopulation was a Global problem demanding a Global solution implies that we have a Global government to apply such a solution. Since we don’t, we must act locally. Secondly he said that overpopulation was NOT a global problem, but the sum total of 194 national ones. We solve ours and set an example for the rest of the world.
  7. You don’t care because you have never given a thought to how many people this country can sustain, or whether there is a certain number of people beyond which healthy biodiversity cannot subsist. You accuse others of being nativist, racist, or xenophobic, but when challenged, you won’t answer a simple question: “How many people do you ultimately want to see live in this country?”
  8. You don’t care because the rights of immigrants and refugees are more important to you than the rights of the people and the wildlife who already call this country home.
  9. You don’t care about wildlife when their survival conflicts with the “cultural” rights of indigenous peoples. Again, scratch your green veneer, and you are a bleeding heart human rights advocate.

You know that you are a Soft Green when, in spite of all of this, you still think you are an environmentalist. That is when you should seek help.

Tim Murray
Quadra Island, BC
Canada March 11/08

Topic:

Immigration myths demolished by economics journalist

The main justification given for Australia's current record high levels of immigration, that is that solves the Skill shortage has been disputed in a recent article by Sydney Morning Herald economics Editor Ross Gittins.

... Clearly, the Government believes high levels of skilled migration will help fill vacancies and thus reduce upward pressure on wages.

That's true as far as it goes. But it overlooks an inconvenient truth: immigration adds more to the demand for labour than to its supply. That's because migrant families add to demand, but only the individuals who work add to supply.

Migrant families need food, clothing, shelter and all the other necessities. They also add to the need for social and economic infrastructure: roads, schools, health care and all the rest.

... So though skilled migration helps reduce upward pressure on wages at a time of widespread labour shortages, immigration's overall effect is to exacerbate our problem that demand is growing faster than supply.

Whilst Gittins has shown up yet another logical flaw in the case for immigration, his own position, or at least the position as represented within this relatively short article, has its own potential logical inconsistencies.

Whether immigration should be used to depress wages, even if Gittins disputes that this is occurring, should be open to question. The picture that pro-immigration economists like to paint is of everyone's wages shooting to the stars unless immigration is ramped up dramatically. In fact, the normal effect in countries such as the US, Canada and the UK is for wages to be depressed although incomplete measures of inflation and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a flawed measure of prosperity, conceal much of this effect. On top of that, the averaging of incomes disguises what is happening at the bottom end of the income spectrum as the income distribution gap widens. In Australia, the resources boom further masks this effect as skilled, semi-skilled and even a few unskilled workers are in a position to obtain higher wages, but these are not spread uniformly across the community and, furthermore, incur considerable ecological cost, and a cost to future generations.

If Gittins is right and the extra demand created by meeting the need in new immigrants overcomes their counter-inflationary effect, it is, nevertheless, clearly unsustainable, that is unless the migrants are bringing with them wealth from the countries they are coming from. Even then, this can't be sustainable in the longer term once that wealth is consumed. All this demonstrates that the economic case against immigration can be problematic, although not anywhere near as problematic as the economic case for immigration.

However, the case against immigration on the grounds of its effects on housing affordability and, more critically, on our environment are far more clear and indisputable. On housing, Gittins writes:

The wonder of it is that, despite the deterioration in affordability, house prices are continuing to rise strongly almost everywhere except Sydney's western suburbs.

Why is this happening? Probably because immigrants are adding to the demand for housing, particularly in the capital cities, where they tend to end up.

They need somewhere to live and, whether they buy or rent, they're helping to tighten demand relative to supply. It's likely that the greater emphasis on skilled immigrants means more of them are capable of outbidding younger locals.

In other words, winding back the immigration program would be an easy way to reduce the upward pressure on house prices.

The role immigration plays in ratcheting up housing costs has been understood by property speculators for years. That is why they openly lobby the Federal Government for higher immigration.

On the environment, Gittins shows that immigration must necessarily add to Australia's Greenhouse gas emissions as most immigrants were coming form countries with lower ecological footprints and lower.

The other great cost only implied in this article, is the sheer destruction of our ecological life support system. The clearing of farmland and bushland for housing and the excessive demands upon our natural resources including fresh water, made necessary by continued population growth threaten to turn this country into a barren desert within decades at most.

Gittins concludes:

... leaving aside the foreigner-fearing prejudices of the great unwashed, the case against immigration is stronger than the rest of us realise - and stronger than it suits any Government to draw attention to.

Should Brisbane aim to be like Vancouver? - the naked truth about a world class city

In the televised debate amongst three of Brisbane's Lord Mayoral candidates Greg Rowell, and Campbell Newman, on Thursday 6 March Newman stated his wish that Brisbane eventually be like Vancouver on Canada's West coast. Vancouver also has a reputation amongst public transport advocates of being a highly livable city. How deserved is that reputation? (Also at )

In a letter to a friend, , an expatriate of Vancouver, who now lives in a more laid-back rural community on Quadra Island to the north west of Vancouver relates his experiences of a past visit back to Vancouver.

The naked truth about a world class city: Letter to a friend

Brishen, re. Vancouver, 17 February 2007

I have a lot to say about Vancouver. Walk away from it for just two and one half years and the change is phenomenal. The volume of cars is crushing. Rush hour is constant. It used to be that I could wait for it to subside to do my errands between 9 and 3pm--no more. Sure the city has many amenities, many choices, but the logistics of getting there make it nightmarish. I stayed in my highrise in the neighbourhood I grew up in. The building I worked in for 29 years and left in 03 is now solid townhomes. The house I owned and renovated so carefully is gone, in favor of a monster house with not a speck of grass or room for a single tree, worth close to a million. All this done in the last three years. I found the same situation with the house I grew up in. My father owned it from 1947 until we sold it after his death in 2002. It had a large yard with a garden and beautiful trees. Now it's a million dollar Italian palace of 8000sq. ft. and a huge garage in the lane---no yard visible. The local Safeway store was demolished in favor of a store three times its size. The 990 sq ft. condo I have that my nephew lives in is now worth $100,000 more than when I left it two years ago. That's capitalism. You bust your ass working for honest wages and it takes for ever to save $100,000. But you sit on wealth and in your sleep your money makes money. Sound fair? Yet this is the system everybody loves. Can you believe that this pitiful condo is assessed for more than my property on Quadra? The system thinks that living in an insane impersonal, hectic, crime-ridden, rat-race is more desirable than living here, hence my property there is worth more than my place here. Go figure. The rest of North Burnaby also looks like booming Shanghai. All along the Skytrain route highrises have mushroomed. The population level will explode. The irony is, the monorail was supposed to take people out of their cars, but there will be so many more people, the monorails will be filled to capacity and the roads will be choked as well.

Of course I spent most of my time at the multi-million dollar vet clinic--a huge facility with cutting edge technology. There are two billion people in the third world who have never seen a CAT scan, an ultra sound or even a doctor, but folks like my self are spending megabucks on their dogs for these diagnostic tools and the highly specialized staff. One night I took my dog out for a walk from the facility and discovered a man, obviously homeless, sitting in a doorway of a business. He commented that I had a nice dog. I brought my dog up to him so he could stroke him and began a conversation with him. I thought about the incredible boredom and loneliness of his predicament. No one talked to him. They avoided him. The police harassed him. He was an intelligent young man. I gave him all the cash I had explaining that I had just spent $800 on my dog so I should be able to give something to a human being. I know it would not solve his problem but at least it would make his day. I told him that I was disgusted by the fact that billions of dollars of development were being spent in this neighbourhood yet there were more and more guys like him living outdoors with nothing. He said there were no easy answers, thanked me, and I went. What I want to conclude from this is that Economic Growth does not, never has, and never will solve poverty. The mal-distribution of wealth is the result of a lack of political will, not resources. If anything, history shows that a booming economy widens the gap between social classes, not only between the very rich and the very poor but between various levels of the middle classes themselves. Once I sell my condo, and I will burn my bridges to Vancouver because I could never afford to buy back into it. Prices just keep rising. The case against Economic Growth is not just an ecological one--economic growth fails even by economic measurements.

Two more vignettes. One morning I took a blood test at a neighbourhood clinic. I brought my Quadra personality with me. I sat down next to a man and shocked the hell out of him by striking up a conversation. He was taken aback. After he answered he resumed his silence. I persisted with another question and another until I broke down his wall. After 15 minutes he warmed up to me and when I got up to go after my name was called he got up and followed me and grabbed my arm. He had something to add to his story. Where I live everybody chats with everybody.At the blood clinic on Quadra the whole waiting room becomes a forum. But at my condo when I got into the elevator people who shared my floor with me for two years would get in and look straight ahead without saying a word. City people think this way of relating to people is normal and besides, they have so many shopping opportunities don't they?

The other incident took place the very first time I came into Vancouver. I hit a wall of freeway traffic, arrived at the clinic, sat down. Then along comes this woman in her late twenties. She's wearing high-heels and those sickly long painted finger-nails. Yep. This must be Vancouver alright. These women by their dress and their cosmetics betray the fact that they are totally cut off from nature. Quadra women garden, hike, kayak and chop wood. Their clothes are functional and they have little time for fashion statements. Vancouver is a space ship. A bubble with its own environment. And the woman who sat across from me at the clinic is typical of the millions who are feeding the consumer economy with their addictive shopaholicism.

My sad impression of this growing cancerous necropolis is that it will not be stopped until its host--the environment--dies. The people who live there are sleep-deprived, workaholic, zombies fuelled on a caffeine-overdose fully committed to their artificial lifestyle because they can't foresee its provisional nature or imagine alternatives. We can lobby, we can educate, we can polemicize--but the great masses of Canadians we are trying to reach live in these urban fantasy worlds. What we mean by quality of life--what we know to be an authentic meaningful quality of life--has no meaning to them. When we tell them that a Canada of 40 or 50 million people would not be a pleasant place, that farmland and habitat would be lost to housing, how can that have meaning to people who don't mind living like sardines in a sardine can, as a tenant in 12 story highrise in a forest of highrises in a city of two million? Quality of life for them is not wildlife habitat-- its access to a Big Box store. I am returning then to a point I made a long while ago to you. I will make it again but this time I will borrow a line from Don Chisholm in his article The Growth Paradigm: "A sane world would be guided by our natural spiritual affinity toward nature and by science." Science is a powerful tool, and we must use our logical, rational mind to fight the system. But as Keith Hobson said, we have had a surfeit of scientific papers. The data apparently is not persuasive. What we have to do is tap into that other tool kit in our brain, our mystic understanding of the world, that Capra alluded to. As human beings we have had, until the Industrial Revolution tore many of us from the land, in Chisholm's words, a natural affinity for nature. That's why the World Wild Life Fund is able to make its emotional pitch. Our connection is still there. But for those living in the major urban centres it is tenuous, and that is, I think, our problem. How do you get zombies to buy into the concept that Canada has a carrying capacity when they think that their milk originally came in a carton or that the locally produced food they eat is not contingent on stopping urban sprawl?

Tim

PS Re my dog. After paying $800 on consultations and ultra-sound, the surgeon offered me the option of solving my dog's problem after I paid $400 for a biopsy and $1200 for CAT scan. If the biopsy did not reveal rampant cancer, he would perform radical surgery, relieving him of his left back leg and half his pelvis. Even then, cancer might be discovered. I rejected the option out of hand. A labrador retriever who cannot chase after balls and sticks and swim in the water for want of a leg and a pelvis would be like chopping off the hands of a concert pianist. I took him back home where he will live on until he is in obvious discomfort and then he'll be put down in my own living room. It will hurt me to see him go, but it would kill me to see him mutilated. Hopefully that was the last trip to Vancouver I will make in my life. I'm dumping the condo by remote control


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How Civilisations Have Died

Some civilisations meet challenges and survive.

Hundreds more have failed. In Asia, Africa and America, ruins of great cities lie in deserts that they have often helped to make. Remnants of cultures cling to places that once were more fertile – eg the Dogon of Africa.

Some people are not worried about the crises ahead of us. They say that Science will save us, or God will save them. They say, humans are clever enough, they will think of a way out. That belief has often proved to be a vain trust.

Some people say we are doomed anyway

.

But we can learn from observing how other civilisations have self-destructed, and how others have survived, to avoid calamities ourselves.

Some have been destroyed by invaders, but hundreds of others have ‘done it themselves’ or climate has done it for them.

The ancient Greeks thought that civilisations rose and fell on a wheel of fortune, and that decline was marked by their own stupidity. ‘Whom the gods destroy they first drive mad’. There are signs of that today.

Examples to study range from Easter Island and the now deserted island of St. Kilda in the Atlantic, to Mayan, Nubian, Benin, the Olmecs in Meso-America, the series of civilisations from Sumer, Ur and possibly earlier, in the garden of the Middle-East, where now are deserts, and the now Gobi desert of central Asia.

The centuries of history of China are marked by dynasties which rose and fell in a cycle where low population pressure grew until there was overpopulation, causing population crises with great famines and wars as the people multiplied beyond the resources available. Then the series of spikes and collapses began again. Currently there is another up-rising spike, the greatest and most serious yet - and it is a question what sort of down-turn there may be.

History may be seen as a series of challenges and responses by civilisations which failed or succeed according to how they met those responses. (Arnold Toynbee’s massive survey). It can also be seen as a series of population cycles and crises, as in a short historical survey by Clair and WMS Russell (1990). They document how so many cultures have failed, or staggered through crises through populations that outgrew their resources or destroyed them, in all parts of the world. Climate changes may have assisted, or even been instigated by humans deforesting.

Hunter-gatherers have killed off the animals they relied on.common pre-history story is represented by the Clovis People of North America, around 10,000 years ago, who abruptly vanish from the archaeological record, replaced by a myriad of different local hunter-gatherer cultures. Why this happened no one knows but their disappearance coincides with the mass extinction of Ice Age big-game animals, leading to speculation that Clovis people either over hunted these mammals and drove them into extinction or over-hunting eliminated a "keystone species" (usually the mammoths or mastodon) and this led to environmental collapse and a more general extinction.

There is speculation that Australian aboriginals killed off the megafauna of the continent, and Eurasian hunters killed off the mammoths.

Swidden farmers who make and farm a clearing in forests or plains, and then move on to make another when that soil is exhausted, can survive as long as they do not become too populous so that the forests have no chance to revive. Farmers like the Mayan appear to have simply exhausted their soils, and the villages withered away.

Irrigation has enabled populations to increase dramatically, but then salination and increasing drought may leave them high and dry, as in civilisations of the Euphrates basin, and the Hohokam of North America.

In the past, a civilisation could collapse in one area, and the rest of the world was unaffected.

Today, we support our billions of population by globalising – resources are imported where they are short. Many countries today cannot grow their own food. But as the global resources run short, there may only be extreme and suicidal measures left – for example resorting to biofuels to make up for oil shortages will only deplete both food resources and the soils needed to grow them.

And even more self-destructive today are the wars over resources, as wars now destroy everything, not just soldiers.

Population Growth and Quality of Life

At what stage should a population stop growing because it makes life worse, not better?

Do more people improve the quality of life?

It needs a certain number of people to have quality of life, with trade, culture, specialisation of work, and for many benefits of civilisation to be economically possible.

When do too many people reduce quality of life?

Across the world megaslums of over 10 million people are growing. The number of rich remains about the same but their wealth increases. The number of poor increases, and while quality of life and health has been improving to date, now these are reducing, with more crowding, more disease, more malaise.

'Too many' depends upon where. A city like Melbourne with only 3.74 million people in a State of five million, may become overcrowded with the official goal to push for another million by 2030. This growth has been promoted as a benefit - Australia's largest port, sporting and cosmopolitan cultural capital, and with many of Australia's largest companies.

Further growth has downsides.

Water is the most serious problem. Restrictions already reduce quality of life, with constant advertising campaigns to save water, and reduction of Melbourne?s famous gardens. The major proposed solutions are an ecologically damaging desalination plant, taking water from northern farmers via pipeline, at a cost to Victorian food supplies, and recycling water from sewage. Time was, Melbourne had the purest, best-tasting drinking water to be found anywhere.

Escalating prices of real estate benefit some, but harm most. Housing is beyond the reach of most young people, and mortgages can be lifelong.

Countryside and fertile local farmland is constantly whittled away.

Timber is being supplied by logging in catchments - a sure way to reduce quality of water and silt up storages with sediments and polluted runoff.

Traffic congestion reduces quality of life and proposed solutions are tunnels and ever more freeways. Pollution increases, with measurable effects. Yet the sprawling outer areas of Melbourne suffer from too little public transport.

To reduce sprawl and costs of supplying its infrastructure, pressures are to redevelop existing suburbs for denser housing, destroying liveable homes, and crowding families with insufficient outdoor play-space and recreation. The 'Australian dream' of the quarter-acre block has to be ridiculed as impractical.

With greater population size comes the crime and social problems common to big cities. More anonymity, more alienation and loneliness. More noise, now documented as a serious stress problem. Local councils of excessive size administer their business like small states. Overlarge schools in small grounds prepare children for crowded lives without community.

It becomes harder to holiday locally in uncrowded beach or country resorts.

The Victorian government relies heavily on gambling rising property values and the building industry as other industries disappear. Business also profits from mass markets.

There has been research on the ideal size of cities according to their available resources. Melbourne has gone beyond that. History also shows that size does not ensure innovative cities with the richest cultures and contributions to civilisation. Sure, London, New York, Paris. But classical Athens, Renaissance Florence and 18th century Edinburgh show how wonderful small can be.

Ageing and stable populations are not a threat

The Western fear of ageing populations must be faced one day, and the sooner the better. The solution to an ageing population cannot be by increasing the younger population, because they in turn will age and need more younger populations – the situation will only get worse.

News reports of worries about the demands on the economy and shortage of labor with an ageing population can be immediately followed by worries about present unemployment especially for youth.

Ageing populations are a problem in rural areas, notably in Japan, because the younger people have gone to the cities because they lack opportunities.

In general, people are living longer because they are healthier. The aged at 70 are usually fitter than the aged at 60 even decades ago. At present, at age 40-plus people can become permanently unemployed - yet with modern health, half the 65-75 age-group and thousands over that age are still capable of great contributions to our society, including a higher proportion in regular employment. Australia today needs brains more than muscles.

Even in retirement, the elderly make tremendous contributions to the welfare of society, in childcare and voluntary work, and in continuing intellectual contributions, with the wisdom of age. Grandparents provided 68% of all informal child care in Australia in 1997. Look at the average age of our farmers today, and how may are over 70! A large proportion of elderly remain self-supporting, and often support the younger generations, so they are no financial burden.

Older people consume less as they usually have established households and fewer needs, except in medical services. This health problem is only for a proportion, and is not tremendous or necessarily insoluble. The health of the elderly can still be improved.

Support ratios of workers to the elderly of 4:1 are not a problem for Western countries. The total dependency of old people in nursing homes is only on average 7 months for men and 2 years for women. On average, people require two years of substantial health care before their deaths regardless of whether they are young or old.

The reduced consumption of the elderly may be a bother for commercial profits, but not an overall problem. Modern methods of production mean that very few workers are really needed to keep the rest of us alive. Children are more costly to the economy than the old. . Their rearing and education costs far more in worker time and in expense than costs of the elderly.

Look carefully at who is putting forward the 'ageing population' argument for increased population and why they are putting it forward. It is business councils and property investors who push for more population because that means more markets, more building, and increasing property values. And overseas there are millions of economic refugees who need somewhere to go. Declining populations are truly a bogey. And more than blue eyes, it is the best of our civilisation that needs saving and promoting, not dependent upon national origin.

Prosperity does not depend upon continual quantitative growth and can be destroyed by it. There have been thousands of prosperous societies in the past with stable populations. There still can be.

See also: by Tim Murray and Brian McGavin of 10 May 08, of 17 Jul 08

Feeding Populations - now and in the future.

Maps showing poor areas that rely on food imports, with shading for those that are unlikely to be able to feed themselves with their present populations. Table of countries and regions that are permanently food importing a. 50 years ago. b. Now. Table of location of refugee camps over ten years old and over 10,000 refugees, and their population growth figures Major sources of food and what is happening to them, including fish stocks and food baskets. Map of soil degradation Sources of fertilizers. Outcomes of Green Revolution Possibilities of GM Foods Carbon emissions and embedded emissions in food supplies

Who gains from population growth?

The ideal family for a stable sustainable population size would be two children per couple, with fair conditions to rear them. Actual family sizes however depend upon the psychology of population and the luck of the game, sometimes claimed to be the Will of God.

Who think they gain from population growth?

1. In developed countries, Governments and commercial interests in developed countries seek continual growth of mass markets, increasing consumption, a prosperous building industry, rising prices for real estate, and docile labor pools. They fear supporting ageing populations (See Fact Sheet 8). However, Government funding of babies is most likely to encourage fertility at the welfare-receiving end of the socio-economic scale, where larger families may not receive a fair chance in life.

Western nations’ pronatalist policies for their own countries is scandalous in face of overseas soaring distress of overpopulation beyond resources. National pronatalism is economically wrong because even with the most open of doors, the West could not contain the rising tides of economic refugees from the South. Imagine Australia taking in the overflow of millions, not dozens or hundreds, from Indonesia, PNG, East Timor, the Solomon Islands and other brimming islands of the Pacific. There are even more millions in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and the smaller nations of the Indian subcontinent.

Vested interests may promote complacency about economic refugees because they can become low-paid labor in developed countries, including as seasonal workers, laid off when not wanted.

National pronatalism is also politically wrong because the West cannot promote family planning for the poor countries without being seen as horribly hypocritical and arousing cries of ‘genocide’.

2. In the worst hotspots of the world, populations are soaring, because of as well as in spite of failed statehood, social and economic chaos, wars, massacres, AIDS and famines.

Throughout history and folklore, the poor are burdened with more children than they can raise, as well as with the distress of no children.

Where there is no social security and child deathrates have traditionally been high, it makes sense to have many children, in the hope that some at least will survive to help support their parents. Increasingly states as well as families are depending on remittances from their children working abroad (as with Tonga and the Philippines). And children can be the greatest joy in life – and they may be the only joy the poor can have. Where women have access to education and family planning, they show their desire for smaller families, that they can cope with.

3. Religious and political outbreeding rivalries. Religious dogmatism overlooks that the first supposed commandment of God, to increase and multiply, is now the only divine commandment that has been fully obeyed, and now it is time to obey the other commands, about loving neighbours and so on. Religions and politics that foster outbreeding their rivals increase the hate and fear in the world as well as the scandal of using ,more children as ‘our weapons’. Influential American fundamentalism cares more for the unborn embryo than for the living child, and cares not for earthly future.

4. Providing food aid and policing for poor nations may even serve particular interests among the donor nations and aid organizations. This too is a problem that must be faced. But it is becoming increasingly clear, especially in Africa and among Australia’s neighbours that however generous the aid and the policing, they will be unable to solve population growth, or even keep up with its increasing needs.

It would seem that one of the two sanest things that humans could do to try to save the planet would be to redirect most financing of armaments to the education of women, supplying access to family planning, and helping states to become economically secure. (The other sane thing is reducing the footprint on the earth that currently accompanies rises in standard of living.) What are the forces that not only prevent this, but actively prevent such campaigning?

Capitalism has raised living standards through the whole world, and the poorest now wear T-shirts, not rags, but it must find a way to operate without requiring continual growth and consumption, seeking growing mass-markets and cheap labor.

GROWTHISM AND THE QUESTIONS THAT GROWTHISTS WON'T ANSWER by Brishen Hoff

I didn't coin the term "growthist", but I think it is clever. In case you wonder what a growthist is, see here: I think growthism is an even worse threat to humanity than sexism, racism, agism or any other 'ism' dedicated to a belief in a superior category or ideology. Why? Because growthism is erasing forests, polluting water, fouling the air, paving over farmland, depleting soil fertility, burdening us with dependencies on complicated technologies and wiping out the variety, quality, and quantity of species. Growthists believe that we need to grow human populations and economic activity without ever saying when will be enough. If present 1% annual population growth continues (70% from immigration), Canada will have 1 person per acre in under 434 years, 1 person per square meter in under 806 years or 1 person per square foot in under 1507 years. IF YOU ASK SOMEONE THESE QUESTIONS AND THEY AVOID GIVING YOU ANSWERS, THEY MIGHT BE A GROWTHIST: 1) Do you think Canada's present population is sustainable in the long term; (think post-fossil fuels) meaning that we can support our own population with our own resources (self-sufficiency) without needing imports from other countries and preserve Canada's variety, quality, and quantity of wildlife at the same time? 2) When would you finally advocate negative net migration? Once we're at 40 million? 50 million? 60 million? How about 1 billion? Would that be enough for you? Or would you try to emulate Britain by having 1 person per acre so that Canada would have 2.47 billion people? 3) Would you expect very many of Canada's native plants and animals to avoid extinction by the time you finally decided we have had too much immigration? So next time you watch a business journalist on a TV station like CBC, Global, or CTV listen carefully to their choice of words, which reveals their bias. They will say things like: "Last year we enjoyed 3% growth but pessimistic economists say we might suffer stagnant growth this year due to fears of sluggish housing starts caused by the US sub-prime housing slump." In reality it is those same growthists who are the preachers of gloom and doom because everything they value directly equates to increasing environmental degradation

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