Comments

This was posted to the Brisbane 'notunnels' yahoo mailing list by Michael in response to this article In my opinion, there is a quite reasonable human trait that for most of us tends to want to be popular rather than hated ... or more accurately, in most cases, people probably prefer to be towards the popular side of the middle (perhaps almost un-noticed?) on a Lichert (linear) scale from "popular/loved" to "unpopular/hated". "Green" groups are similarly inclined to want support including in the form of people as well as in-kind and financial support ... and you don't get that by upsetting people ... and for "people" read criticising the dominant paradigm or dominant hegemony. The ABC TV Peter Singer "Talking Heads" interview covers this well where he explains his role as thinking about and explaining problems and issues ... for OTHERS to think and act further on ... So the RACQ does not really want to promote greener cars or bicycles any more than Bicycle Queensland wants to attack motorists for threatening if not killing cyclists (and pedestrians) ... thus many of these types of groups become implicit if not explicit supporters of the dominant hegemony/paradigm by way of choosing NOT to upset people with what is usually (and hopefully) accurate but bad news. This is one reason why governments consult widely with these groups which position themselves as "oppositional" but on close scrutiny are far from that ... and in most cases are supportive of the dominant paradigm/hegemony. To take a couple of current SEQ transport policy examples, the cost of which is into the billions, BQ has in effect (implicitly but in print explicitly) supported the Gateway Duplication and the Houghton Duplication so in no way can it claim to be other than supportive of the RACQ and the car based transport planning for SEQ. However BQ has a caveat in supporting these projects. It says it supports them only because in each case, cycling (and walking) space has been provided. In a version of "you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours" with the state and BCC, BQ has seen it necessary to lobby publicly for the cycling space and the government has reluctantly almost begrudgingly agreed after some "argy bargy" to provide the cycling space at what would appear to be a massive cost. What (almost?) nobody asked was the question "why was cycling not included initially as part of the project cost rather than positioned as an extra cost, given cycling is supposed to be provided for under policies and plans such as the IRTP?" Indeed similar questions can be asked about why Beattie is suddenly interested in light rail and cycling bridges across the Brisbane River as he prepares to resign as Premier? is he handing Anna Bligh a "poisoned chalice"? It is not hard to imagine the light rail and cycling advocates suddenly dropping their criticisms in order to try to get their favoured outcomes. But why are these state and not BCC projects? Why are similar 'state' projects not being built in other "big" cities in Queensland and in smaller situations, pro rata funding made available for similarly "green" transport? The "Redcliffe" rail line comes to mind as does the Springfield rail ... both of which could have been built before the major road upgrades (as per the North Perth expansion). It is also easy to forget that just about this day in 2000, PB was going to have light rail in Brisbane but he then reneged but NEVER provided the reasons. Similarly at the same time, he was going to reduce the Queensland Government's fuel subsidy ... and he reneged. So even he knows not to upset the dominant paradigm or hegemony ... The question then is really how to form (or from another perspective, how to deal with) groups that form up as "oppositional" but are then tempted to "go easy" if not become co-opted and implicitly if not explicitly become supporters of what they might have been expected to oppose. Population growth is another case of a similar problem. Beattie knows people enjoy having jobs and so the best way to ensure employment is to create jobs and the "best" (?) way to do that is to promote development and to do that by encouraging an un-natural population growth to fuel demand ... then even the downside impacts give support to the need to create more jobs ... more dams, more roads, more power stations, etc ... the classic "Growth Machine" ... Add to that a lifestyle which if shared globally would require as many as 5-6 or more equivalent planet Earth's ... and the outcome is not hard to foresee. But try to address that and see what happens. Indeed I found it interesting that the BCC is paying only $15m to upgrade electricity supply for the tunnel boring machines but nobody has mentioned the MWH rating of these two beasts and the effect of their EXTRA load at normal peak loading periods... $15m sounds like a token donation but would Beattie want to charge or disclose the full cost of the energy to be used in building and maintaining the NSBT when he has so strongly supported it and his friend Campbell's plans for even more roads and more tunnels? The rapid increase in local average temperatures in Brisbane and SEQ combined with the drought might just be an aberration ... but what if after a little over a 100 years, it is a return to normal conditions? How many people should be allowed to live in SEQ? On what basis? Did Terry the Fox care about these issues or even know about them as he master-minded the SEQ plans then headed off to help build the intended outcomes? Same questions for Campbell Newman and his visions of car dominated Brisbane and SEQ run on carbon offset somewhere else. Did the consultants and bureaucrats care about these issues or even know about them as they worked on developing and implementing the plans? Do they even know or care now? I enjoyed the opening line namely ... "The simplest truths are sometimes the hardest to recognise." There are some other gems too. ... I have also highlighted them in red. (can't read red highlight on my e-mail client program - JS) Bring on the debates ...

Further post put here because of Online Opinion's stupid 350 word limit. Bernie, Your reads like a rationale for doing nothing. Of course, half measures like cutting back Australian aluminum production will achieve little if it is to be done in China instead, but even such half measures are at least a start and better than doing absolutely nothing. However, rather than doing nothing or only doing half the job we need to approach the problem from as many directions as possible. The Chinese people, as well as ourselves, must come to understand that maintaining the current rate of non-renewable resource extraction is threatening their future as well as our own. --- , I suggest you read read the articles on the impending decline in the production of the world's preciouls metals more closely. For a start, of the 1.6 million figure you cite, the abovementioned states: "In contrast, the U.S. Geological Survey predicts there is only 950 million metric tons of the metal that could be recovered." Note the use of the words "could be recovered" and recovering that total amount of copper, even if those somewhat more realistic estimates are wholly accepted, will still incur a massive cost in non-renewable energy and other natural resources including water and the overall degradation that mining causes to the envirnment as I explained above. The production of Copper in Chile (perhaps not the world, sorry) will peak next year. (see ) As Chile is the world's largest copper producer, informed experts expect that the overal decline in world Copper production will follow that of Chile's. It is upon copper and other precious metals that many of the high--tech 'renewable' alternatives to fossil fuels as well as nuclear power will depend. Without them we may face no alternative but to go back to pre-fossil fuel forms of energy, i.e. human labour, horses, bullocks, etc. --- BTW, , I would be fascinated to learn how you discovered that I was a 'government handout taker'. However, even though you have now revealed my secret to the world, I somehow think if those now struggling to pay for the unearned windfall profits of property speculators, by working late in to the nights with their mortgage repayment terms extended to 30, 40 or more years, instead of 20 years as was the maximum a generation ago, were to consider the issue objectively, they would be less unsympathetic to the likes of 'outed' dole bludgers like myself than they would be to the property speculators.

I note that Premier Beattie was reported in the Courier mail as having : "I'm pleased that we are the growth centre of Australia and the centre of the universe. ..." The Mary Valley residents, of course, together with the endangered lungfish, are also being made to of this growth with the destruction of their community ostensibly in order to find the extra necessary water needed for this growth.

Orignally posted to (not by me) on 22 June 2007. Mr Costello's economic vision reminds me of a blind express train driver (apologies to the sight-impaired, if you can see this at all). We're rushing like mad to where? - somewhere. Anywhere but here it seems. Anywhere but where we've been. Keep the pedal to the metal. The schedule is all that matters. Timetable rules - ok? The fool listens too much to the well dressed blokes who have taken over the dining car. They keep him stoked with pie and chips and hearty compliments. What blind express driver could fail to be impressed, if he has no other sensory input? Just pie and chips and a heavy Right foot. That's the ticket, pal! Vrooooom! Will no-one tell him that we are cresting the peak? Will no-one tell him that the gradient down the other side only gets steeper? No need for economic drivers then. No need for engine or throttle either. We're going to accellerate into a valley where pies and chips will be in very short supply. The well dressed blokes think that monopolisation of the dining car will be their salvation, but the pantry is far smaller than they think. I blame their mothers frankly. The driver and the well dressed blokes were never made to eat their upper-crusts, and it shows.

The meeting was a great success with 220 attendees counted. The Mount Cotton Community hall was full with many forced to stand.

Dear Boron Combustion fan, (Original question was actually "What are the maths of dilution of radioactive material collecting above ground" (meaning material which has been brought to the surface and thus artificially increases the ambient above ground radioactivity). Thanks a lot for your contribution here, which I have just read with interest and mathematical incompetence, interpreting it with the help of James Sinnamon, the website editor, who is now reformatting your contribution. I will ponder and discuss your response so that I can come up with some useful remarks and I will email it to a few lists in the hope of stimulating some reactions. So please take this as positive encouragement to continue in this vein. Sincerely, Sheila N

"What are the maths of dilution of radioactive material collecting above ground", is the title of Yahoo energy resources . They're somewhat difficult, and I am not entirely on top of them yet, but I found this at www.rertr.anl.gov enlightening.

Its , shows how the radioactivity, measured as a proportion of a fission reactor's heat production, varies with time after the reactor is shut down. At the left side the graph cuts off at 200 days post-shutdown, i.e., doesn't show the heat production fraction for earlier times.

If the missing trace from 200 days to zero days were there, it would require a screen or a piece of paper 140 times taller, because at the instant of shutdown the fraction, I happen to know, is 0.07, not 0.0005. But in those early days it's also dropping very fast, so to plot them, we would make the divisions hours or days rather than the hundreds of days in the chart we have, and we would make the vertical units larger. What this, I think, means is that the chart would look the same.

Three equations are plotted; they all give close-enough results. The one that I find useful, although I recognize that it doesn't look very nice, is the one labelled U. & W., Untermyer and Weills:

Delayed power/in-service power =
   0.1*{ (t+10)^(-0.2) - (t + T_0 + 10)^(-0.2) -0.87*[(t + 20000000)^(-0.2) - (t + 20000000 + T_0)^(-0.2)] }

... where 'T_0' is how long the reactor was on and 't' is how long ago it shut down, both in seconds. This can be simplified if we approximate the time the reactor is on. 'T_0', as infinity; this causes the "^(-0.2)" terms that include it to become zero, so we can cross them out:

Delayed power/in-service power =
   0.1*{ (t+10)^(-0.2) - xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx -0.87*[(t + 20000000)^(-0.2) - xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] }

... and get this:

Delayed power/in-service power =
   0.1*{ (t+10)^(-0.2) -0.87*(t + 20000000)^(-0.2) }

What good is that?

Well, we can interpret the post-shutdown time in seconds 't' as the time a man-made radioactive nucleus takes to escape and become diluted. Suppose it takes ten years, i.e. 316 million seconds. Then the delayed power in the escaped, diluted man-made radioactive material is this fraction of the power of the reactor that we suppose to have been running, and leaking, forever:

0.1*{ (316,000,000+10)^(-0.2) -0.87*(316,000,000 + 20,000,000)^(-0.2) }

... and that's:

0.1 * {0.0199555 0.87*0.0197121}

... and that's:

0.0002806.

If you are able to put the whole equation, with a finite value for 'T_0', into a spreadsheet you will find that reactors that have run less than forever will have built up slightly less ten-years-delayed leakage. After infinite time, the radioactive nuclei that have escaped to the wild are decaying, and emitting their radiation, exactly as fast as new leakage replaces them; after long but finite times, they are decaying almost as fast, and therefore their activity is building up slowly.

So, for a collection of reactors that over many decades averages 1 trillion watts of total heat production, and have spent fuel pools that are only big enough for ten years' accumulation, and spent fuel older than that is all totally leaked and dispersed, we know the environmental radioactivity due to them will asymptotically approach 0.00028 trillion watts, 280 megawatts. It will forever get closer but never quite there.

To decide whether that can be "put safely into the world system on a dilute basis", you could compare it to the megawattage of radioactivity naturally dilute in, um, nature. That's actually the easy part because the dilute radioactivity in nature doesn't noticeably vary in a human lifetime. I'll return to this if there is some interest.

something like, "Man, I guess I showed what I'm made of, gleefully saying Reject conventional plants out of hand when it was the too-good-to-be-true result that needed to be rejected, not out of hand, but via a minute's arithmetic", you're instead introducing a whole shovelful of new EROIs. What would your proper course of action be if you were unalterably convinced that nuclear energy had much higher EROI than fossil fuel energy?

Sheila and James, I didn't find a URL to Sheila's Excel file although I certainly found it earlier; but, I found the ISA file, which is good enough to use as an example of the problem I am referring to. All of this data is too vast for me in the time I have to study it; but, I can make my points by discussing just one number, for example, the energy costs associated with mining. I would like to understand what is included in that figure. In , I defined five EROIs (0 - 4) rather than six because I didn't think it was fair to include over-consumption in sectors other than energy due to the payment of a manager or commissar class more than the workers were paid, although, clearly, if workers could live on their salaries, managers could live on a worker's salary too. The five EROIs corresponded to the following investment costs - and, when I say costs, I always mean energy costs, or, rather, the consumption of stockpiles of Helmholtz available energy (U - ToS) produced earlier. U is internal energy; To is the temperature of the coldest reservoir to which heat can be dumped, and S is entropy. 1. EROIo. The energy invested (EIo) is the direct energy overhead of the energy sector. 2. EROI1. EI1 includes, in addition to the direct energy overhead, the indirect energy costs associated with the energy overhead of the manufacturing and transportation portions of the overhead of the energy sector but not the overhead due to commerce. 3. EROI2. EI2 includes, in addition, the overhead due to the activities of commerce in connection with the sale of energy. 4. EROI3. EI3 includes, in addition, the consumption of energy associated with that portion of the salaries paid to the energy sector in excess of what they would have been if no one earned more than the workers do. This is thought to account for over-consumption associated with profit taking in connection with the sale of energy. 5. EROI4. EI4 includes, in addition, the consumption of energy by the workers in the energy sector and the pro-rata shares of the energy expenses of the workers and managers in other sectors insofar as they support the energy sector. What is included in, for example, the total energy cost of mining? Or, if you wish, enrichment? Tom Wayburn, Houston, Texas

Some designers apparently have said, why not both? -- Magnox, RBMK. As far as I know none of these designs ever actually contributed plutonium to their countries' bomb collections, and all have since fallen by the wayside, also, as power producers. Some harder than others (Chernobyl was an RBMK). There is a reactor type in which ordinary water boils right around the fuel rods, and the genesis of this type is obscure to me. It is of course known as the BWR, the Boiling Water Reactor. The world has, IIRC, something like 150 of them, and their number is increasing. If you raise the rate of water injection into them, the boiling zone briefly moves higher up the rods, but this means there is more water around them, so power increases until the zone moves back down. So these reactors' power levels can be adjusted fairly quickly when demand changes, or as nuclear people say, they can load-follow. The PWR was designed to produce motive power on board submarines*, and had to follow load nimbly there, but when it was adapted to work on shore, somehow that attribute was downgraded. More than half the world's power reactors are PWRs. The P stands for pressurized, which doesn't really distinguish it from the BWR except by implication: the PWR is more pressurized, enough that no boiling occurs. The very hot liquid water exiting the reactor goes through small pipes surrounded by other water elsewhere, and it is this other water that boils. Like the BWR and PWR, the CANDU was designed strictly for power production, but has no naval ancestry, and might be hard to fit in a narrow hull. Its heavy water is, as with the other types, pressurized, and as with the PWR, pressurized enough that it doesn't boil, so that the class to which the CANDU belongs is the PHWR. (It is not, quite, the only member. There is a German variant and in India there are CANDU clones.) Heavy water is a small fraction of natural water, but is easier to enrich than uranium. A technical discussion at gives the energy requirement rather vaguely ... The G-S process was a triumph of engineering stubbornness: it uses large amounts of steam energy (>10 Mg/kg D2O); H2S is highly toxic ... "Mg" means megagram, i.e. 1,000 kg, so more than 10,000 kg of (ordinary) steam per kg of (heavy) water separated. But how much more? Twice more? Let's assume twice more. Then a CANDU that starts life with 360 tonnes of heavy water and after 40 years leaves 300 tonnes to its successor -- ... designers of thermal reactors have a fundamental choice: either, isotopically enrich the uranium fuel in fissile atoms; or, isotopically enrich the moderator in deuterium. The first option is an ongoing requirement. The second ... is close to being a one-time operation since only around 0.5%/a of the heavy water is lost from a CANDU... -- will need 7200000000 kg of steam, 7.2 million tonnes, for that initial 360-tonne allotment. But a CANDU that powers a 600-electric-MW steam turbine/dynamo set does so by putting ~1875 thermal MW into steam production. (The very hot heavy water exits the reactor and flows as liquid through pipes surrounded by ordinary water; the latter boils.) That will be around 0.75 tonnes of (ordinary) steam per second. So the steam-raising a CANDU must do to power the heavy water extraction process for its twin requires its first nine million seconds of full power operation, or thereabouts. Its first ~100 days, out of probably 30 full power years in service; and at the end, most of the heavy water can be bequeathed to a successor. That probably is why Miller isn't very precise. This has taken some time, but I didn't know this stuff, so I've gained. * Two years ago, an event showing that it does this very well:

The ISA team assumed a 3% per annum increase in our energy requirements, which over a long term can get really out of hand, and was looking at a scenario with a quarter being nuclear by 2050. These scenarios are totally unrealistic, of course. If the price of oil goes through the roof, the US economy will collapse, followed by everybody else, and no nuclear power stations will be built during a world depression. I think diffusion technology was invented first and used to make weapons grade uranium in large quantities. It now makes 40% (and falling) of all power reactor fuel. Centrifuges are much more energy efficient and currently have 60% of the enriching market. There are other methods of enrichment and background in the ISA report. Here are some clips:
3.4 Enrichment At its natural concentration of 0.7%, 235U92 can be used as a reactor fuel only in particular reactor types (heavy-water reactors and high-temperature reactors). In order to be able to maintain a nuclear chain reaction in typical light water reactors, the concentration of 235U92 in the uranium isotope mix has to be increased to about 3%. At present there exist a range of enrichment methods using UF6 as feed. Since uranium isotopes do not differ in their chemical behaviour, enrichment techniques exploit their mass difference as a means for separating them [25]. These methods are: • Gaseous diffusion: The heavier 238U92 isotope diffuses more slowly than the lighter 235U92 : Enrichment from 0.7% to 3% 235U92 requires in the order of 1,000 consecutive separation cascades. In 2002, 40% of all enrichment plant used gaseous diffusion (mostly France and USA). This percentage is decreasing in favour of the centrifuge method. • Gas centrifuge: The partial pressure of two gases (contained as a gas mixture in a rotating cylinder) depends on their masses. Centrifugal forces cause a radial concentration gradient, with the heavier isotope concentrated outside, and the lighter isotope concentrated inside. Enrichment from 0.7% to 3% 235U92 requires in the order of 10 consecutive separation cascades. In 2002, 60% of all enrichment plants used the centrifuge method (mostly Russia, Germany, UK, Netherlands, China, and Japan). • Electromagnetic Isotope Separation (EMIS): Uses the magnetic separation principle of a mass spectrometer, albeit at a larger scale. Used for building the Hiroshima bomb, and in Iraq’s nuclear program, but now outdated. • Aerodynamic (jet nozzle) method: Exploits the same physical principle as the gas centrifuge, but creates a rotating gas mixture by injection into a circular jet. Demonstration plants built in Brazil and South Africa. • Laser: The energy spectra, and therefore the ionisation energies of different isotopes depend on their masses. Using mono-energetic laser beams, one isotope can be preferentially ionised, and filtered out using an electrostatic field. At the end of this stage, the enriched UF6 is converted into uranium oxide (UO2). The energy needed for enrichment is partly dependent on the incremental enrichment factor for one cascade, which in turn determines the number of cascades necessary to achieve enrichment to around 3%. Gaseous diffusion needs more cascades than the gas centrifuges, and additionally requires the energy-intensive compression of UF6 at the entry point of each cascade (Table 3.4). Gas centrifuges only require electrical energy for the rotation of the cylinders, and some heat in order to maintain an axial convection of the UF6. Atomic laser techniques require the normally metallic uranium to be evaporated (using considerable heat energy), and then transferred into a vacuum, so that ions can be electrostatically filtered [25]. The Australian laser technique is based on molecular rather than atomic laser separation. Instead of having to maintain uranium atoms in a hot gas, the technique uses the already gaseous UF6, and preferentially excites UF6 molecules.6 [ ... ] The two tables above require an explanation of the unit SWU. Amounts of enriched uranium are usually expressed as Separative Work Units (for example tonne SWU).8 There is a trade-off between the amount of natural uranium feed and the number of SWUs needed to produce enriched uranium. For example: in order to produce 10kg of uranium at 4.5% 235U92 concentration while allowing a tails assay of 0.3% requires 100 kg of natural uranium and 62 SWU. Asking for the tails to have only 0.2% assay limits the amount of natural uranium needed to 83 kg, but it also increases the separative work to 76 SWU. Hence, the optimal (tails assay) compromise between uranium feed and separative work depends on the price of natural uranium versus the cost of enrichment operating inputs. During times of cheap uranium, an enrichment plant operator will probably choose to allow a higher 235U92 tails assay, and vice versa. In terms of the energy balance of the nuclear fuel cycle this means that lower tails assays mean that less energy is spent on mining, milling and conversion, and more on enrichment, and vice versa ([17] pp. 26-36 & 43). Storm van Leeuwen and Smith [18] summarise studies undertaken between 1974 and 2003, averaging 2,600 kWh/SWU for gas diffusion, and 290 kWh/SWU for gas centrifuges.9 These values agree well with most of the additional references (Table 3.4).

Sheila Newman, population sociologist Hi GRL Cowan boron combustion fan, Thank you. We have now fixed the seconds and days confusion :-) Thank you for assisting our humble beginnings. We had not heard of the CANDO technology. Ilan has read about it now but we haven't had time to discuss it. I will now go to your page and have a look. What is your opinion as to why different technologies receive preference in different countries? Is there no outstanding technology? Thanks very much. Sheila N

Sheila Newman, population sociologist Hi Dave, Thanks for this stuff, which I have downloaded to read. I think what Ilan and I are doing here is sort of building up basic models from scratch, one or two building blocks at a time. Possibly only when we have done a bit of this will we be able to evaluate the Melb Univ study. I believe that Mike Stasse had a relevant comment to make about the Melbourne Univ study - that it anticipated a lot more fossil fuel use, i.e. a business as usual PLUS nuclear. Is that so in your opinion? Ilan wonders why certain technologies are chosen by some countries and others choose others. What was the reason for the assumption of the two different mixes in the Melbourne Univ study?

Sheila Newman, population sociologist Hi Dick, Yes, we do plan doing more on this topic. We are doing it in an ad hoc manner, as we want to compare notes, and here, for instance, to get sums terms etc critiqued. I am interested in your collaborative of universities etc. This particular research of mine (basic as it is) which Ilan is helping with, is towards working up a new section on nuclear, either for a second edition of The Final Energy Crisis, or maybe for another book of articles on Energy and Post Oil Peak. Modelling energy really interests me, especially for particular regions/countries etc reflecting what they already have to work with, but a world energy project is of course of great energy. I agree that the centrifuge process doesn't look too bad and that the reason is partly a consequence of the limited scope of the analysis. Tom Wayburn will hopefully develop his comments but would you care to comment on what you think should be taken into account? I have added those headers. You were right as to what they signified. I should probably synthesise the Wikipedia info more accessibly but won't spend time on it right away. Glad you posted here, Dick. Sheila N

Sheila Newman, population sociologist Hi Tom, Would you be able to rough in the cost of commerce and the energy expenses of the workers and deduct it? Feel free to rough in your own theory as well. Although I have read it, since I'm trying to develop a working understanding of the basics of the various nuclear options, I'm not at this point taking a whole of society approach, but intend to later. Hope that isn't too incomprehensible of me. Sheila

I see both the cells in the "Electricity Output" row contain "*3600*365" in their formulae. This suggests the factor-of-24 error is due not to mixing up years and half-months, but rather due to mixing up hours and days. There are 86400 seconds in a day, not 3600.

A 1.3-GW power plant with 90 percent utilization produces 1.17 GW, i.e. 1.17 GJ per second, and the "Electricity Output" cell value, 1537380 GJ, is the amount it would produce in half a month. (A year is 31,556,926 seconds. Dividing by 24 and multiplying by 1.17 we get 1538400. In a 365-day year, 31,536,000 s, the average half-month is 1,314,000 seconds, and this times 1.17 reproduces the "Electricity Output" cell value exactly.) However, the "SWU (Separative Work Units)" cell contains 120000, and this seems closer to the annual separative work requirement of a nuclear power station that averages 1.17 GW*. The interval should be noted, and should be the same for both cells if they are to be compared. *-- not to forget CANDU plants, about which there is nothing unconventional and whose uranium separative work requirement per year is zero.

The report by ISA of University of Sydney, "Life Cycle Energy Balance and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Nuclear Energy in Australia" [ Download 2.75 MB PDF ] includes a full cycle energy analysis. Their spreadsheet is available at www.peakoil.org.au/isa.nuclear-calculator.xls They have data for diffusion and centrifuge technology and they assume a mix of 30:70 for their base case, which represents the current state in the industry. Diffussion:37,225 GWh(el) + 3,598 GWh(th) => 118,995 GWh Centrifuge: 4,461 + 4,022 => 17,851 30:70 14,290 + 3,895 => 48,194 So ISA shows the electricity used in diffussion is 8.3 times that used in centrifuge, whereas your spreadsheet shows a ratio of 41. Diffussion is clearly very inefficient technology and presumably will be phased out over time. If only centrifuge technology is considered, the enrichment energy (electrical + thermal) is 12.6% of the full nuclear cycle's energy investment. The ERoEI of the full cycle is then 6.8 for ISA's base case. Changing the Load factor from a very optimistic 85% to the world lifetime average load factor of 71.4%, and changing the uranium ore grade from the current 0.15% to the average of all Australian ores of 0.045%, the full cycle ERoEI drops to 5.3

Sheila and Ilan, Accepting the limited scope of this result, it still could benefit from substantial notes to explain the spreadsheet and how each number was derived. I see two columns, but no header atop the columns to explain what we are comparing. Based on the note at the bottom, I can guess it might be comparing gaseous diffusion vs. centrifuge enrichment processes. If that's the case, then the centrifuge process doesn't look too bad - but that's of course partly a consequence of the limited scope of the analysis. Do you plan to do more on this topic? I'm working with a collaborative of multiple universities and experts on ERoEI and a world energy modeling project is just getting started, so this will be of interest going forward. - Dick Lawrence ASPO-USA

If this is a typical EROI study, they have left out the cost of commerce and the energy exxpenses of the workers that would not have occurred if they had not been employed in this industry. Therefore, the EROI is probably much lower than this very low EROI. I guess we can reject conventional plants out of hand.

MySpace has the pictures, blog-city the comments. Sheds, garages, would be service station, all now used as rental accommodation. To sell your home & land and re-locate could still leave one at a disadvantage as not many are game to go into debt in a small town, and the banks are still not keen to lend, unless you are well up the income bracket.

Like an ant trying to move a boar out of the mud. I prefer to grow my own fruit & vegetables, but the dictates of the coal mining industry dictate what water we can use, so my best bet is rely on my 'grey water.' Rudd would do better in fixing OZ internal problems.

In truth, when I used the greeting 'comrade', it was personal to the green groups themselves. The printing of this letter here was without my knowledge, but later approval. I don't see how a moratorium on development puts pressure on old infrastructure. We don't need 'barriers' to stop people moving to SE Qld, just a lack of houses for them to live in. This would be achieved with a moratorium. You ask "where would they move to?", and I say they can stay where they are! Yes I know water shortages are happening everywhere - people must stop breeding! And we must also put a moratorium on immigration. Australia is overpopulated now. The climate's screwing up, our food stocks are dropping (largely due to the drought), and you think it's alright to increase the population? Moving people to less populated areas fixes nothing. I have just done that myself. I now live in a state of the art eco-house (whose construction DID emit 100 tonnes of CO2!) just north of Noosa, but I am water/energy/waste self sufficient. The people around me aren't though..... as soon as it stops raining, they empty their tanks, and water trucks queue up past my place to refill them..... while my tank overflowed again with the 40mm we received a week ago. See, it fixes nothing if people continue to be stupid. The trouble is, no-one wants to talk about overpopulation. It's taboo, for reasons I can't really fathom. Why? We're not rabbits!? Can't we discuss this like the intelligent beings we are supposed to be? Mike.

Hi Ross, I wouldn't get too hung up on the term 'comrade'. I understand that members of the Labor Party often use this term also. Whether or not we can stop people from coming to Queensland, we have to be clear that adding 1,000,000 to Queensland's population in the last 15 years has seriously degraded our environment and adding another 1.25 million to South East Queensland by 2026 as the SEQ Regional Plan allows may degrade our environemnt beyond the point of no return. If we are clear that we don't want to increase population then we can at least stop encouraging immigration into Queensland as Premier Beattie and Brisbane's Lord Mayor Campbell Newman have been doing. I think tere may be some potential fo rdecentralisation to mitigate the harm of overpopulation, but it should not be used as an excuse to encourage further population growth.

Hi Mike, I'm not sure that use of the term "comrades" will encourage any readers. In fact I believe it will have the reverse effect. The use of that term alone will negate any message you wish to give to others. In correspondence between Green groups it may be acceptable but even there it has overtones which deter potential recruits to your thoughts. Nothing personal, just my immediate reaction to the term. As to whether there is a water or population problem the result is the same is it not? Too many people, not enough water. Stopping development will surely just increase pressure on existing, and old, infrastructure with the obvious results. That is breakdown in the most populated areas as more people try and live in existing housing. Where should they go? Much as I disagree with Mr Beattie on most things even he stated the obvious in that we cannot put up borders to prevent people coming here. It's not just a Brisbane problem either Mike, it's happening everywhere. What I'd prefer to see is incentives given for people to move to less populated areas but that too will create demands for water that probably isn't available right now. The push for recycled water is clearly a problem of lack of planning, foresight and action by all governments here over the last 30 years. They just sat on their hands and let things ride until crisis after crisis began to hit. Thus the push for an unpalatable (excuse the pun) choice. There is also a slight problem with a potential cessation of development. That is unemployment. Because of that such a change will not happen and I would suggest pushing that line will be both fruitless and will embarrass the Greens or green supporters. Rather than focus on the cessation of development I would suggest a more productive approach would be to attack the government(s) that have created this problem and expose them for what they are. I feel that the vote will fail simply because of the stigma, as it did in Toowoomba. It's too easy to discolour the issue and opponents will prey on ignorance, as usual. No offence intended and I do agree with the thrust of your message but reality tells me such efforts will be frustrating and have no chance of success.

Hi James, and all, If there's money in it then it will be used. Man has shown no interest in protecting our future when the day to day wants (greeds actually) present. Should I make money today and forget about the future? Of course I should is the answer of governments, corporations and conveniently placed individuals. Waste of course will always be disposed of safely and securely and no one would ever be tempted to use this source of energy other than wisely. Believe that if you want. The facts are the exacty opposite of course. Man will misuse anything at times and have done so from the dawn of time. We have enough madmen in control of their "buttons" already don't we? Bush for one, as leader of the only country to use such power in war to date. Nuclear power has suddenly become the "light" for John Howard to shine on his Green credentials for what reason? There's money in it of course. Particularly if it is processed here in Australia. What could be more obvious for the next error in choice for energy? Speaking of dinosaurs, did anyone see the item recently on the melting of the permafrost in Siberia? That report stated that the melting will expose massive numbers of mammoth carcases and the resultant release of methane gas is going to be a huge boost to global warming. Perhaps they will get their revenge on us humans simply by lying where they died. And of course, James, dinosaurs still abound in the corridoors of power don't they? If only their end would be as sudden and complete as the real dinosaurs.

Sure, the Australian Government is riding on the coal wagon, at present. Farming is knocked for a six with the drought. Took a while for the townies to wake up that the dams were getting lower & lower. I refused to sell up & leave, even if the busy little social workers worked on my friends & associates to nag me into believing I was usless and getting febbler by the day, on my death bed practically, but what better place to die than among your friends & family. Asking rents are up to $680.00 I read a few weeks back for a simple 4 bedroom miners cottage that would be six dollars a week back in mid 1970's even before the treasurer of the day put a tax on the sub. housing. Then there was the 10 weeks strike. My daughter who lives on the land, [where some of the dams have already dried up] informs me that she is really surrounded by mines, and if they say they want their land to mine, you are forced to sell, at acceptable price, as it is too dangerous to stay. Australia is no better than the Congo, or any other place that International Big Business says, "I want," and takes. Costello has said, China & India want our low ash burning coal, and if you do not oblige, they will just take.. I quit with onlineopinion as management removed a comment of mine, and I so strongly believed in what I was saying, best way was out..

Well, I stand by my ground regarding RN, which is the only bit of the ABC I can stand these days. Most of their presenters are clearly to the progressive/left end of the spectrum. The only right-wingers I can think of offhand are Geraldine Doogue and Michael Duffy (who's explicitly there to counterbalance Philip Adams, in which role he's pretty feeble). I hardly see this type of 'bias' as bad, since (a) it counterbalances the 'mainstream' (ie. corporate right-wing) and (b) there's a kind of balance displayed in RN's recruitment policies, since most intelligent and independent people really do tend to be left-wing. RN's News and Current Affairs coverage is pseudo-balanced, in the sense that they give 'both' sides of debates opportunities to voice their side. There is however a tacit acceptance of 'mainstream' (ie. right-wing) framing. I have an outstanding complaint with them currently regarding their exclusionary use of the word 'family', for example. But I think this is more a question of ovine careerism than bias. Let's face it , the average young career journo isn't especially bright or perspicuous, and has a hard time seeing through the corporate training that Australia forces on its citizens. But then so do most of us.

It's difficult to disagree with much of this item. Timely too given today's "water summit" in Canberra, the upshot of which appears to be that we are in a "once in a thousand year drought". Good one, a country with less than 300 years recorded history can make such ridiculous statements and hope the public just cower in fear and rely on those people we, yes us, voted to lead us through such times. Times when the $ is not just the best thing in our lives (according to our so called leaders), it is the only thing. It is already rumoured that John Howard is gearing up his warchest to open the purse strings yet again, on tax cuts, social security benefits and anything else that can distract the voters from what we need. That is governments who respond to the public rather than boasting about "hard decisions" which is code for policies the public do not want or need. The solution? As Peggy Lee sang "Is that all there is? If that's all there is my friend, then let's keep dancing. Let's break out the booze, and have a ball, if that's all, there is." Nero sang that song first I understand, although Adam probably hummed the tune as well. Don't bother doing anything, those that hold the power of government will continue as they are. Do nothing, spend big on your buddies and ignore the bleeding obvious until the next election. In our case John Howard is using, and always does, distraction. Scare them as much as possible, tell them as little as possible and rely on public stupidity and apathy to keep electing either the current government or an identical one currently led by a rather large man. Regrettably one who has no plans. Oops, sorry. Kim did promise to "fix global warming" didn't he? Just lie back and think of England. Again, sorry, Australia of course.

Good on you Jill, good letter. I did not know you had taken over as President of the VIC branch.

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