climate change

ETS and extra taxes will not solve the problem of climate change

Sun, 2008-08-10 09:32 by nimby
Extra pricing and taxes (ETS) is the solution to climate change. We need to actually address the causes of greenhouse gas emissions, not slap on extra charges and add to the general public's woes and diminishing lifestyles! Our government is using India and China as an excuse to drag their heels on climate change, and this is so they can continue to be driven by commercial gains and economic growth! We are one of the world's largest ghg emitters per capita, so ethically we are more duty-bound to find solutions, and reduce our capitalistic extravagances. Coal-based fuel needs to be incrementally phased out and replaced with renewable sources. We need to invest in carbon credits with our forests, fauna re-population and flora revegetation. Livestock industries need to be dismantled, or drastically reduced, and we need a zero population growth policy. The fact that our governments are deliberately increasing our population at this time is indicative of their ignorance of climate change - they can't be addressing the cause of climate change and be encouraging the driver of it (humans and their activities) at the same time! More people means a higher demand for goods and services, despite losing the Murray Darling rivers, The Great Barrier Reef, our biodiversity etc etc! It doesn't make sense. The three big causes of greenhouse gas emissions are industries based on coal, livestock and unsustainable agriculture, and a growing population. These three areas need to be addressed and alternatives invested in! Slapping on extra charges for energy and water - this is indicative of how governments "think"! It is all about money, greed and profits - the only language they know.

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Brumby's call for 'pause' in rate of population growth insufficient

Fri, 2008-08-01 17:28 by nimby
Mr Brumby's concession that our population growth from migrants will be "paused" for a short time is not enough! The argument that Victoria "still needed skilled migrants to help its economy" is indicative of the greed of business leaders at the top-end of town who are driving this growth to the detriment of the environment and the lifestyles of most of its inhabitants. Victoria is the most cleared state in Australia. Thirty percent of Victoria's animals are either extinct or threatened with extinction. Our state has been losing its endangered grasslands at a rate equivalent to more than three football fields a day. So-called "sustainable" industries such as intensive farming, irrigation, native forest woodchipping, and overgrazing are pushing the endurance of Nature to new and dangerous limits. Victoria's climate change figures are predicting the worst-case-scenario! Mr Brumby is arrogantly intent on making more freeways, growth corridors, and other mega-developments, while squashing any protests. He will leave the mammoth task of repairing the damage for the next generation! We can't have continual growth on finite and depleting natural resources.

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The crucial question

denis's picture
Fri, 2007-12-28 23:30 by denis
There is a question that will be increasing asked in knowledgeable quarters as the over population, climate change, oil shortage and financial bubble burst hit hard. The question is how independent of the availability of natural goods and services is society by virtue of the advances made through innovativeness in the application of technology. It is easy to see that our modern way of life is so much easier through the know how and technology that transforms these natural goods and services into the forms we utilize. It is now hard to visualize life without electricity to provide a very wide range of necessary and luxuriant services. The fuel for transportation is now regarded as an essential element of every day life in most regions of the globe. It would be possible for these inquisitive people to estimate the relative contribution of natural resources and human know how using technology to the worth of the goods and services provided. For example, appreciable raw materials and energy was used in the construction of the Sydney Harbour Bridge and in its subsequent operation and maintenance over the past seventy years. These processes entailed a very ineffective usage of the natural resources in the construction and operation because they resulted in the production of appreciable waste heat and waste materials. For example, they made a very small contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, so to the irreversible global warming that is under way. This means that the material value of the Bridge is appreciably less than the eco cost. Also, its material value will continue to irreversibly decline due to wear and tear and the influence of weathering. At the same time, the aggregated eco cost will be irreversibly increasing due to the necessary maintenance and operation. That is, the effectiveness of the Bridge will be continually decreasing until, eventually, it will be zero when the Bridge is no more. Its worth to the Sydney community has been clearly much greater than the ecological cost entailed in its construction, operation and maintenance. Human cleverness has enabled an appreciable profit on this ineffective ecological expenditure using technology. It is common to use the term ‘mechanical advantage’ in those situations where a lever can enable an operation. It would seem appropriate to use the term ‘value advantage (VA)’ for the type of situation we are examining here. Suppose such estimation for the Bridge yielded a VA of 15 to date. It would be possible to carry this estimation into the future with the continuing worth of the service it provides being only partially offset by the continuing eco cost of servicing it. It is quite likely that the projected VA would continue to increase because of its increasing contribution to the movement of people and goods. However, some problems could well arise that evoke an appreciable additional eco cost that would temporarily reduce VA. Eventually, the VA will be zero when the Bridge is demolished. To sum up, the temporary usefulness of the Bridge to the community comes about by the inherently irreversible and ineffective use of natural resources being more than offset by human know how combined with technology. The draw down of the natural bounty capital, however, is irrevocable and continuing. The same ecological accounting principle could be applied to, say, the Australian economy. Its development has come at an appreciable eco cost. It has used up an appreciable proportion of its limited oil bounty. Usage of its coal resources has made a major contribution to the supply of electricity but also to global warming. It has drawn down a substantial amount of water from the Great Artesian Basin. It has used farming practices that have eroded soil fertility and increased salinity problems over a high proportion of its very limited arable land whilst eliminating much of the natural bio systems. This is in addition to covering over arable land with housing developments. Water has been appropriated for use in the cities at the expense of ecological flows in the few rivers this country has. Logging has further degraded natural water flows as well as devastating bio diversity. Many indigenous species have become extinct in recent times as a consequence of humans taking over the operation of much of the eco system. Ground water has been polluted by chemical industries, artificial agriculture and sewerage. Housing developments have affected natural storm buffering capabilities. These eco costs have been entailed in building the trappings of civilization. A number of cities house and provide employment, cultural activities, operating services and recreation for most of the twenty million people. Roads, rail, airports and seaports help to ease the tyranny of distance in the sparsely populated countryside though encouraging the tyranny pf congestion in the cities. Vulnerable water works enable irrigation to assist food production, supply potable water to the cities and even help to generate the electricity that powers many of these operations. Australia has enjoyed a number of advantages in building up these trappings. These include having a vast store of mineral resources, including coal, iron ore and uranium. Consequently, the current VA is probably about 6 and would be higher if there had been less dependence on using coal for power generation and more attention had been paid to building up public transport in the cities. Again, the ineffectiveness of using the natural bounty has been more than offset by human know how and its technology in installing value, despite the ineffectiveness of the methods for using this bounty. Australia is starting to suffer the consequences of climate change brought on by the malfeasances of the industrial giants. They add to the problems stemming from the cancerous growth of the cities. Traffic congestion and ineffective public transport are contributing to a loss of value in living in a city. Water supply problems are affecting biodiversity, food production and posing problems regarding supply to the cities. Tackling these developing problems will involve eco costs even as the value of this component of civilization declines. That is, the VA is most likely to have started to decline rather than continuing to increase. The adjustment to the transportation systems to cope with the consequences of the reduction in road and air transport brought on by high fuel prices is another factor that will contribute to a decreasing VA. There is good reason to believe the VA of the Australian civilization has peaked and the populace will have to adapt to a powering down. Governments at local, state and federal levels will have to introduce additional remedial items into their budgets in an attempt to maintain the goods and services required for the effective operation of their communities. They will have to raise additional taxes to balance their budgets. As a consequence, the community will have to adjust to a lower standard of living as the higher taxes combine with the higher costs of many of the basic needs, like food and water. The coming generations will have to pay for the free lunches of the present and previous ones. There will doubtless be plenty of moaning about the lack of foresight in the development of this civilization, including the problems created by the dependence on cheap oil and the encouragement of population growth. The emerging dismal view of the future in Australia will not be alleviated by the fact that the situation is much worse in most other countries. There will doubtless be many in positions of authority who will down play the decline and portray a brighter future for the up coming generation with technology being the supposed savior. This again brings up the question of the correlation of the capabilities of civilization with the eco cost entailed. The VA seems to provide a realistic measure – or does it? The answer has to be a resounding no. It is a common view of the situation but it is a delusion because it is based on the false premise that the eco cost entailed can always be met. It presumes the required natural goods and services will always be available. Common sense says that presumption is ridiculous yet that fallacious thinking under pins the operation of society. It is questionable as to which shortages of the natural resources will have the greatest impact and when. Oil could well top the list in the developed countries but concerns about the availability of water are arising in many regions. And global food supply is falling short of demand. It is clear, in aggregate, that the globally available natural bounty capital is depleted. The barrel is nearing empty so the capability of meeting the increasing demands of civilization is declining, as is the value of civilization. Returning to the Sydney Harbour Bridge example can indicate the fallaciousness of the current view of the economy. The current VA is estimated to be 15. Governance doubtless has included an ongoing budgetary item for its operation and maintenance. It may also have given consideration to its eventual replacement as it is seventy years old and there will be signs of aging despite the rigorous maintenance. That is, there is the implicit presumption of something like business as usual. That there will be continuing progress in using up natural goods and services even as many of them become really scarce. Australia has vast amounts of iron ore so supplies of this for making steel may not become a problem. But steel making and forming uses up a lot of energy and this could be very scarce. The bureaucrats may well then be in a quandary. Does the steel for the replacement bridge have priority over the steel for rail lines or for replacement ships? Does the power for producing the steel have priority over the power for houses in the suburbs? Finances will have little influence on these basic logistics questions. Money loses its power when realities have to be faced, as it cannot create these declining natural resources. To sum up, society is very adept at using its knowledge and technology in building up the edifice of civilization but it ignores the fact that this is achieved by irreversibly drawing down on the limited natural bounty capital. It has operated without recognizing one of the most fundamental natural laws, the Dependence on Nature Law. It will not remain ignorant of this reality for much longer as it tries to cope with problems like over population, climate change and declining food, water and oil supply with fewer available natural resources. Technology may, if wisely applied, make good use of the remaining capital as society powers down to essentially live on natural bounty income, as their forebears did before the Industrial Revolution set in train the transient unsustainable gluttony period. Civilization now has to face up to the depreciation of natural bounty capital. Depleting oil supply is only one, albeit quite apparent even to the powerful, component in a complex mix of the declining capital. The loss of fertile soil will hit the headlines when food becomes scarce for many. The senescence of civilization will need wise treatment to ease the pain of making do with less. Denis Frith ‘What went wrong? The misdirection of civilization.’ ‘The Usufruct Delusion’ ‘The Dependence on Nature Law’ ‘The Immutable Duality’ ‘Unsustainability of civilization’ ‘Industrial civilization Pandora's box’ ‘simple science’

simple science

denis's picture
Tue, 2007-12-18 12:56 by denis
There is one fundamental fact that is often forgotten in the discussion of energy security and carbon dioxide emissions. It is that the combustion of fossil fuels invariably has two consequences. It is the source of the energy that does useful work in industry in the process of being dissipated as waste heat. It is also the source of carbon dioxide that irreversibly increases the level in the atmosphere and the oceans. It is the source of carbon dioxide that has distorted the natural cycle. The ratio of the amount of carbon dioxide exhausted to the amount of heat generated is highest for coal and least for natural gas. But the principle invariably applies for the fossil fuels. There is an immutable duality between the use of these fuels to supply the concentrated energy used by industry, commerce or in the home and the carbon dioxide emissions that are powering climate change. Industrialized civilization is addicted to using the concentrated energy from fossil fuels. The Pandora box has been opened. This use has enabled the build up of the high materialistic standard of living for many. This use has enabled the parasitic urbanization. This use has enabled the reliance on mechanical transportation. This use has fostered unsustainable agribusiness to provide food for the vast population. This use has fostered decimation of biodiversity. But this use has also initiated climate change. This addiction cannot readily and in a timely fashion transform to a lesser dependence. Development of renewable and nuclear sources of energy can, at best, slowly provide a partial substitute in powering down the modern edifice. This means that severe climate change is irrevocable. No amount of rhetoric, obfuscation or bargaining by the powerful is going to change this irreversible devastating trend. And climate change is predicted to exacerbate other problems for the gross over population, like food production and water supply, particularly in the least industrialized regions. The die has been cast. Civilization is in senescence. The irony is that the supply of the exhaustible fossil fuels is becoming scarce so they will not be readily available to partially counter the problem they have generated for all, the impact of climate change. Denis Frith Melbourne Australia ‘What went wrong? The misdirection of civilization.’ ‘The Usufruct Delusion’ ‘The Dependence on Nature Law’ ‘The Immutable Duality’ ‘Unsustainability of civilization’ ‘Industrial civilization Pandora's box’

THE SIERRA CLUB AND THE NDP: A MARRIAGE OF THE BLIND

Tue, 2007-12-11 17:56 by tim
Like they used to say about marriage, the NDP and the Sierra Club (social democrats in hiking boots) go together like a horse and carriage. A horse with blinkers on that is. In matters environmental, both believe that the ecological consequences of population growth can be steered out of harms way by thoughtful planning, or simply ignored. “Growth is good”, declared deposed NDP Premier Lorne Calvert, so long as it is “shared”. Others are not so necessarily sanguine. They merely say that it is “inevitable”—so lets make the best of it. One local NDP President articulated this attitude quite well when he said that “there is always going to be growth as long as the population keeps growing and cheap land is available but that doesn’t mean it cannot be planned or channeled. City councils and regional districts have a lot of clout with zoning by-laws. They can ensure that the true costs are paid, that certain areas are a ‘no-go’.” Of course the notion that the tap of population growth could be turned off by the federal government by the simple expedient of turning down immigration is not considered, for that would strike at the heart of NDP policy of a yearly “1% plus” immigration quota. A Sierra Club spokesperson echoed the above prescription, for in environmental and planning parlance, it falls under the rubric of the famous, or infamous, “Smart Growth” recipe. It is emphatically not an anti-growth position. It is a managed-growth position. The problem is, we don’t manage growth, growth manages us. Smart growth failed in its birthplace of Portland, Oregon, and across the United States. Tight zoning laws cannot indefinitely defend farmland, wetlands, nature reserves or parks from relentless population growth. And the people who live in strictly defined, dense neighbourhoods still have a footprint, they still generate wastes and green house gasses to the tune of 20 metric tones annually for each Canadian. The GHG reduction policies of the NDP in Western Canada and federally are flawed by the same assumption that the Sierra Club makes. Namely, that political timidity, outmoded technology, and poor energy choices by industry and households are responsible for our poor record. When asked by CTV News why Canada was failing so badly, John Bennett, a senior policy advisor with the Sierra Club of Canada, said there were three key reasons: A surge in carbon energy exports, especially oil and gas, a loss in nuclear generating capacity in Ontario in the mid-1990s and its replacement with coal-generated electricity, and a lack of political will to force action on the issue of cutting emissions. What neither Bennett, nor any NDP or Green politician mentioned was the fact that since 1990, the Kyoto base line year, Canada’s population grew by 19%, which one might think would account for a good portion of the 24% increase in GHG emissions since then. Similar correlations can be found elsewhere. Between 1970 and 2004, America’s population and its GHG emissions both rose an identical 43%, while Australia saw its population and GHG rise almost identically at 31% and 30% respectively between 1990 and 2006. In fact, per capita emissions have remained stable in Canada, so it is only population growth that can be held responsible for the country’s last place standing in carbon emissions growth. Yet it is to the individual consumer, the “per capita” rather than the volume of “per capitas”that Sierra Club officials direct their appeals. After all, it was Saint Al Gore who said that “each and every one of us can make changes in our lives and become part of the solution.” The watchword is personal responsibility. But oddly, the choice not to have children is never listed among the several steps to fight climate change. After all, it is more cost-effective to avert a birth than to attempt contain that human’s C02 emissions after the fact. A non-consumer has a smaller footprint than a green one. This past fall, in welcoming Al Gore to British Columbia, the Sierra Club launched CERCLes (Carbon Emission Reduction Clubs) and invited me to join them in “making a personal commitment to meaningful and measurable change.” But I already did that when I resigned myself to a life of celibacy. Was the Sierra Club handing out condoms? I was then invited to find out how I could “take action to reduce my carbon footprint.” Well, the best climate change strategy for me I think is to ensure that there is no “pitter-patter” of little carbon footprints running around the house. And the person best able to most effectively “take action” is Citizenship and Immigration Minister Diane Finley by subtracting 250,000 “footprints” from the quota she had slated to bring into Canada. Then to persuade her cabinet colleagues to end any “baby bonus” that would serve as an incentive to have children here. Whether a consumer enters this country of profligate waste through the maternity ward or through the airport is of no concern to the biosphere. Both are burdensome. It is no wonder that Sierra Club endorsed the NDP as Canada’s most environmentally-friendly party. It is a marriage of eternal covenant, a tag team of denial. Tim Murray Quadra Island, BC December 10, 2007

Topic:

The Immutable Duality

denis's picture
Sat, 2007-11-10 15:24 by denis
It is easy to be overwhelmed by the complexity of the issues involved in the operation of society. Yet the use of the energy obtained from fossil fuels to drive these operations entails a simple immutable duality. It is that this irreversible energy use entails an irreversible global warming so climate change. Recognition of this simple mechanism would help to identify those measures that can be the most effective in meeting the dire challenges society should be addressing. There is no possible technological fix for what has been done. There is no turning back the clock. Fossil fuels are extracted from the geological store for the chemical reaction of carbon from the fuel with oxygen in air to provide the primary source of energy whilst exhausting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The energy so produced does useful work for society but is dissipated as waste heat in this irreversible process. It entails an irrevocable draw down of this natural capital. It is a process that is depreciating the eco system in doing work for the global society. The carbon dioxide so produced by industrial activity has irreversibly increased the concentration level in the atmosphere and oceans because the natural sources and sinks of this gas are roughly in balance. The high concentration level means that the radiation in is exceeding the radiation out so the atmosphere and oceans are warming up. This global atmospheric warming has instigated irreversible rapid climate change. The warming of the oceans is also having deleterious effects. It is counter productive to use energy from fossil fuels in industrialized measures that attempt to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The carbon dioxide released by the measure will exceed that extracted. Using natural methods, like forests driven by insolation, to enhance the carbon dioxide sinks, so reduce this rate of increase of the level is sound but of very limited value. The rate of energy flow through the forests is miniscule compared to that from fossil fuel combustion. And any benefit is being countered by the rampant de-forestation. Consequently, the speeding up global warming is likely to continue so long as fossil fuel emissions continue. The impact of the momentous climate change on natural and industrial operations is expected to be dire. The use of fossil fuels to provide the main source of energy to drive industrial civilization has a limited life. But the climate change initiated by using these fossil fuels will be continuing even when the fuels are exhausted. It is ironical that the declining availability of the fossil fuels will ensure a powering down of civilization just as climate change will make it harder for society to cope with an underfed excess population. There are moves to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels by developing the capability of using bio fuels to provide some of the energy driving civilization. It has a very limited substitution capability because of the increased dependence upon a weak source of energy, insolation. The principle, however, still applies. The use of energy to drive industrial operations irrevocably entails irreversible degradation of the eco system. To summarize on this issue, industrialization has entailed extracting carbon from the geological store of fossil fuels to provide energy through combustion with atmospheric oxygen to power its operations temporarily. The resultant increasing level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is accelerating global warming so irreversible climate change. The declining availability of the fossil fuels will slow down the operations of civilization and the rate of climate change. Using fossil fuels temporarily to do work for civilization has ensured an ongoing climate change due to global warming. It is a faustian bargain and future generations will have to pay a hefty price. Yet that is only part of the story. The balanced operation of the extremely complex ecosystem has evolved in a manner not appreciated by those who make the decisions about the operation of civilization. Accordingly, biodiversity has been grossly disrupted to facilitate food production for the vast population, using up the subsidy from the fossil fuels. At the same time, the growth of urbanization has reduced the availability of arable land. The positive improvement in the synthetic food production capability is immutably linked to the reduction in the capability of the natural eco system to support this food production. This is another element in the negative sum game society is playing with the eco system with dire consequences, primarily for society. Denis Frith Melbourne Australia ‘What went wrong? The misdirection of civilization.’ ‘The Usufruct Delusion’ ‘The Dependence on Nature Law’ ‘Unsustainability of civilization’ ‘Industrial civilization Pandora's box’ ‘simple science’

How will Australians be coping in five years time

denis's picture
Wed, 2007-11-07 10:07 by denis
I decided it may well help to get the coming situation into perspective to speculate on what will happen here in Oz in a hypothetical, optimistic behavioral scenario. So I am looking at what may be the situation in say five years time assuming a number of premises, namely: 1 There is not a major war as this could make nonsense of the speculation 2 The vulnerable American financial market does not crash so rapidly that the resulting global Greater Depression makes nonsense of the speculation. 3 There is no major global reduction in the rate of GHG emissions because of the continuing emphasis on economic growth in China, India and Brazil, the intransigence of the US and the muted response of the EU. This means that the level of GHG will continue to climb at a rapid rate. Policies adopted in Oz with respect to GHG emissions will have no impact on climate change. 4 Federal, state and community governance responds to the developing scenario as best they are able in a sound fashion, stimulated by the attitudes and suggestions of many community groups like ROEZ. Remember, this is an optimistic speculation with no pretence of being realistic! 5 Taxation is varied to make the essentials like food, water, sanitation, housing, education and care affordable to the poorer in the community while providing the necessary money for infrastructure development and maintenance and some environmental remedial action. This would mean that the well off would have their ability to consume stuff reduced. 6 There is growing recognition that the first priority should be to try to maintain a sound fundamental structure for the operation of society. This includes fostering the skills in farming, sound resource utilization, nursing, teaching, policing and caring. There is a consequent trend away from advertising, marketing, development and real estate. There is a growing demand for adult education of many of the past, useful skills without dependence on diminishing resources. 7 the growing appreciation of the importance of sound water supply and treatment requirements for the cities and for the rural areas is leading to appreciable debate but little action, largely because of the interdependence of water supply and energy availability, compounded by the claims that GHG emissions should be reduced. 8 There is emerging widespread appreciation of the problems that will develop due to the oil supply limitations causing an ever-increasing cost of transportation fuels. 9 Measures are put into place to encourage changing from agricultural crops and methods that are inappropriate because of their heavy water usage or damage to the environment. This trend is seen to be appropriate due to climate change and the declining export market for grains. 10 There is growing recognition that Australia’s sustainable population is limited by our paucity of the crucial natural resources, fertile soil and useable water. There is the realization the natural population growth increases the ecological debt so is to be discouraged as we have a moral obligation for some immigration due to the global over population problem. Taxation is used to discourage large families. 11 The growth of mining of our mineral wealth to obtain money by exporting is seen to be against the long-term good of the community. The mining giants show some overt signs of responsibility to the community while they hide the declining ability to ectract the lower grade ores. 12 The real cost of owning and operating cars has had a major impact in both the cities and the rural areas, particularly amongst the less well off. The rising cost of fuels has encouraged the trend to smaller and fewer cars. Growing transportation costs have had a significant influence on the standard of living of all except the well off. It has had the beneficial effect of fostering bike riding. 13 The push for ‘renewal’ energy measures has grown amid misinformation and disinformation about the need and the capability but this has not matched the growth in the requirement for electricity despite some movements towards more efficient use in homes and industry. 14 The failure of many investment funds has decimated the superannuation of many, so increasing the load on social benefits as well as fostering the decline in social morale. 15 The continuing recession has reduced the ability of many people to partake of international tourist trips. This has resulted in only a limited boost to local tourism because of the recession. 16 This, together with the trend for business people to reduce overseas trips because of the increasing security measures and pressures to reduce GHG emissions has had a major impact on the airline and airport businesses. 17 De-urbanization is another growing trend due to the increasing accent on the need to sustain food production and the impracticalities of living in the outer city suburbs. 18 Some businesses focusing on energy efficient houses, the manufacture of simple, durable tools and other measures to manage the new realism are booming. These changes in attitudes and methods are expected to foster society adjusting to the reality of having to live with what is available from the ecosystem. However, these adjustments cannot occur over night. It is quite likely that: 1 There is difficulty in adapting to climate change particularly with respect to food production and water supply due to the intrinsic uncertainties as well as embedded conditioning. There is widespread community resentment that Australia, with other countries, is suffering as the consequence of the misjudgment in the large industrial nations. There is little recognition that we are, in principle, just as blameworthy. Many are upset that they have modified their energy usage at the suggestion of governance for no useful purpose. The appreciable uncertainty about how climate change will affect Australia is clearly having a major impact on governance and business. 2 The right to have a large family is a very controversial subject although there is growing acceptance of the view that Earth is not coping with the current population level and a decline is inevitable. The developed countries are trying to come to terms with their declining birth rate coupled with the needs of their aging population. Governance in Australia still has to allow for an increasing population, particularly in regional cities. 3 Many in the community, especially business people, find it difficult to accept a lowering standard of living is becoming the norm. They still have the belief that technology will provide solutions to the depletion problems and that market forces will correct the emerging problems. This misperception amongst the powerful is still being fostered by unsound claims for proposed substitution technologies. 4 There is growing acceptance amongst some of the young that there is a major challenge to make the best possible use of what is still available from the ecosystem but there is still widespread resentment that their forebears have wasted so much. The inability to realize on their plans for overseas travel does not help. 5 Community confidence in governance is clearly declining. Questions are being asked about why Peak Oil was not recognized by the ‘authorities’ at the time so that some appropriate remedial measures put in place. The continuance of building more freeways is now seen as sheer stupidity by those supposed to know better. 6 The car revolution has caused much angst with the beneficial effects being largely forgotten in the perceived loss of ‘freedom’. The reduced congestion in the cities is accepted but governments are blamed for building freeways rather than public transport. 7 The necessary increased dependence on public transport, particularly in the cities, has not been matched by implementation of improved capability, so adding to community worries and criticism of lack of foresight by governance. 8 The increased popularity of using bikes has not been matched by the modification of roads and the provision of bike trails. 9 Competition in the airline business grows bitterly as the ordered A380s and Dreamliners come along as passenger levels fall drastically. Cheap fares are a boon to those who can still afford it but many in the industry are being put off with a loss of entitlements as numerous airlines go bankrupt. 10 ‘Globalization’ has become a dirty word in business. Localization is emerging in an endeavor to reduce fuel costs. The proposal to deepen Port Phillip Bay has been dumped; to the delight of the environmentalists and also businesses that have had to re-align their business plans to cope with the emerging reality that importing is becoming too costly. There is widespread resentment in Tasmania that the pulp mill built at Bell Bay has caused harm to environment in the Tamar while not helping the local economy because the market for pulp has collapsed. 11 Many of the well off privately welcome this trend as it means they do not have to cope with crowds and congestion in satisfying their indulgences. Nevertheless, they actively resist the usurping of their ‘rights’ to a luxuriant life-style. 12 The limited trend towards acting as communities has been more than offset by the growing sense of resentment and bewilderment amongst the working class. Civil disruption has grown, particularly in the suburbs. 13 The slowness of the education system at all levels to adapt to the changing operation of society is inhibiting adaptation by the populace at large. The universities have been loath to abandon research advancing the frontiers of knowledge for improving the understanding of fundamentals, like the maintenance of soil fertility. Improvements like home cooking, permaculture and organic farming are still having little impact because so much as to be re-learnt. 14 there is growing recognition amongst the knowledgeable that the best that can be done is to adopt measures that will mitigate the decline of many aspects of civilization. They accept that the elite will be able to pursue business as usual to the detriment of the community as a whole. The current adulation by the masses of the ’achievements’ of the rich, powerful celebrities will be replaced by abhorrence at their greedy ravaging of society and its life support system. 15 The farming communities are doing their best to adjust to the changing circumstances but the transformation is being inhibited by pragmatic and financial constraints compounded by increased uncertainty. Renewing widespread recognition by urbanites of the real worth of the farmers does help, however. Those in the cities like to be fed! 16 The attempt to remedy the dire situation in the Murray-Darling Basin has made little progress because of its impact on scarce resources, particularly the fuels used in transportation and the machines. The ecological and irrigation processes have continued to deteriorate despite some progress in the farming revolution. 17 Governments face a difficult situation due to the heavy demand on social security due to blossoming unemployment and the crash of some superannuation finds. They have to prioritize their reduced taxation income to meet these demands while implementing measures to cope with the growing environmental and urban problems. 18 Manufacturers and retailers are having difficulty in adapting to a reduced demand for throwaway stuff and an increasing demand for simple, durable tools and materials. 19 The housing market, particularly for large, energy in-efficient homes in outer suburbs, has collapsed. Developers have largely disappeared from the large cities and have adopted a more pragmatic approach in the developing regional towns. It seems to be quite clear that even with the most optimistic view of what will happen in the near future, most in Australian society will have to face up to a dire, traumatic power down at a disconcerting rate. It is to be hoped that emerging people power will rise to the challenge of easing the process as much as possible. What happens, however, will also be very dependent on overseas developments. Denis Frith

How will Oz handle the ecosystem predicaments?

denis's picture
Mon, 2007-10-29 21:58 by denis
I decided it may well help to get the coming situation into perspective to speculate on what will happen here in Oz in a hypothetical, optimistic behavioral scenario. So I am looking at what may be the situation in say five years time assuming a number of premises, namely: 1 There is not a major war as this could make nonsense of the speculation 2 The vulnerable American financial market does not crash so rapidly that the resulting global Greater Depression makes nonsense of the speculation. 3 There is no major global reduction in the rate of GHG emissions because of the continuing emphasis on economic growth in China, India and Brazil, the intransigence of the US and the muted response of the EU. This means that the level of GHG will continue to climb at a rapid rate. Policies adopted in Oz with respect to GHG emissions will have no impact on climate change. 4 Federal, state and community governance responds to the developing scenario as best they are able in a sound fashion, stimulated by the attitudes and suggestions of many community groups like ROEZ. Remember, this is an optimistic speculation with no pretence of being realistic! 5 Taxation is varied to make the essentials like food, water, sanitation, housing, education and care affordable to the poorer in the community while providing the necessary money for infrastructure development and maintenance and some environmental remedial action. This would mean that the well off would have their ability to consume stuff reduced. 6 There is growing recognition that the first priority should be to try to maintain a sound fundamental structure for the operation of society. This includes fostering the skills in farming, sound resource utilization, nursing, teaching, policing and caring. There is a consequent trend away from advertising, marketing, development and real estate. There is a growing demand for adult education of many of the past, useful skills without dependence on diminishing resources. 7 the growing appreciation of the importance of sound water supply and treatment requirements for the cities and for the rural areas is leading to appreciable debate but little action, largely because of the interdependence of water supply and energy availability, compounded by the claims that GHG emissions should be reduced. 8 There is emerging widespread appreciation of the problems that will develop due to the oil supply limitations causing an ever-increasing cost of transportation fuels. 9 Measures are put into place to encourage changing from agricultural crops and methods that are inappropriate because of their heavy water usage or damage to the environment. This trend is seen to be appropriate due to climate change and the declining export market for grains. 10 There is growing recognition that Australia’s sustainable population is limited by our paucity of the crucial natural resources, fertile soil and useable water. There is the realization the natural population growth increases the ecological debt so is to be discouraged as we have a moral obligation for some immigration due to the global over population problem. Taxation is used to discourage large families. 11 The growth of mining of our mineral wealth to obtain money by exporting is seen to be against the long-term good of the community. The mining giants show some overt signs of responsibility to the community while they hide the declining ability to ectract the lower grade ores. 12 The real cost of owning and operating cars has had a major impact in both the cities and the rural areas, particularly amongst the less well off. The rising cost of fuels has encouraged the trend to smaller and fewer cars. Growing transportation costs have had a significant influence on the standard of living of all except the well off. It has had the beneficial effect of fostering bike riding. 13 The push for ‘renewal’ energy measures has grown amid misinformation and disinformation about the need and the capability but this has not matched the growth in the requirement for electricity despite some movements towards more efficient use in homes and industry. 14 The failure of many investment funds has decimated the superannuation of many, so increasing the load on social benefits as well as fostering the decline in social morale. 15 The continuing recession has reduced the ability of many people to partake of international tourist trips. This has resulted in only a limited boost to local tourism because of the recession. 16 This, together with the trend for business people to reduce overseas trips because of the increasing security measures and pressures to reduce GHG emissions has had a major impact on the airline and airport businesses. 17 De-urbanization is another growing trend due to the increasing accent on the need to sustain food production and the impracticalities of living in the outer city suburbs. 18 Some businesses focusing on energy efficient houses, the manufacture of simple, durable tools and other measures to manage the new realism are booming. These changes in attitudes and methods are expected to foster society adjusting to the reality of having to live with what is available from the ecosystem. However, these adjustments cannot occur over night. It is quite likely that: 1 There is difficulty in adapting to climate change particularly with respect to food production and water supply due to the intrinsic uncertainties as well as embedded conditioning. There is widespread community resentment that Australia, with other countries, is suffering as the consequence of the misjudgment in the large industrial nations. There is little recognition that we are, in principle, just as blameworthy. Many are upset that they have modified their energy usage at the suggestion of governance for no useful purpose. The appreciable uncertainty about how climate change will affect Australia is clearly having a major impact on governance and business. 2 The right to have a large family is a very controversial subject although there is growing acceptance of the view that Earth is not coping with the current population level and a decline is inevitable. The developed countries are trying to come to terms with their declining birth rate coupled with the needs of their aging population. Governance in Australia still has to allow for an increasing population, particularly in regional cities. 3 Many in the community, especially business people, find it difficult to accept a lowering standard of living is becoming the norm. They still have the belief that technology will provide solutions to the depletion problems and that market forces will correct the emerging problems. This misperception amongst the powerful is still being fostered by unsound claims for proposed substitution technologies. 4 There is growing acceptance amongst some of the young that there is a major challenge to make the best possible use of what is still available from the ecosystem but there is still widespread resentment that their forebears have wasted so much. The inability to realize on their plans for overseas travel does not help. 5 Community confidence in governance is clearly declining. Questions are being asked about why Peak Oil was not recognized by the ‘authorities’ at the time so that some appropriate remedial measures put in place. The continuance of building more freeways is now seen as sheer stupidity by those supposed to know better. 6 The car revolution has caused much angst with the beneficial effects being largely forgotten in the perceived loss of ‘freedom’. The reduced congestion in the cities is accepted but governments are blamed for building freeways rather than public transport. 7 The necessary increased dependence on public transport, particularly in the cities, has not been matched by implementation of improved capability, so adding to community worries and criticism of lack of foresight by governance. 8 The increased popularity of using bikes has not been matched by the modification of roads and the provision of bike trails. 9 Competition in the airline business grows bitterly as the ordered A380s and Dreamliners come along as passenger levels fall drastically. Cheap fares are a boon to those who can still afford it but many in the industry are being put off with a loss of entitlements as numerous airlines go bankrupt. 10 ‘Globalization’ has become a dirty word in business. Localization is emerging in an endeavor to reduce fuel costs. The proposal to deepen Port Phillip Bay has been dumped; to the delight of the environmentalists and also businesses that have had to re-align their business plans to cope with the emerging reality that importing is becoming too costly. There is widespread resentment in Tasmania that the pulp mill built at Bell Bay has caused harm to environment in the Tamar while not helping the local economy because the market for pulp has collapsed. 11 Many of the well off privately welcome this trend as it means they do not have to cope with crowds and congestion in satisfying their indulgences. Nevertheless, they actively resist the usurping of their ‘rights’ to a luxuriant life-style. 12 The limited trend towards acting as communities has been more than offset by the growing sense of resentment and bewilderment amongst the working class. Civil disruption has grown, particularly in the suburbs. 13 The slowness of the education system at all levels to adapt to the changing operation of society is inhibiting adaptation by the populace at large. The universities have been loath to abandon research advancing the frontiers of knowledge for improving the understanding of fundamentals, like the maintenance of soil fertility. Improvements like home cooking, permaculture and organic farming are still having little impact because so much as to be re-learnt. 14 there is growing recognition amongst the knowledgeable that the best that can be done is to adopt measures that will mitigate the decline of many aspects of civilization. They accept that the elite will be able to pursue business as usual to the detriment of the community as a whole. The current adulation by the masses of the ’achievements’ of the rich, powerful celebrities will be replaced by abhorrence at their greedy ravaging of society and its life support system. 15 The farming communities are doing their best to adjust to the changing circumstances but the transformation is being inhibited by pragmatic and financial constraints compounded by increased uncertainty. Renewing widespread recognition by urbanites of the real worth of the farmers does help, however. Those in the cities like to be fed! 16 The attempt to remedy the dire situation in the Murray-Darling Basin has made little progress because of its impact on scarce resources, particularly the fuels used in transportation and the machines. The ecological and irrigation processes have continued to deteriorate despite some progress in the farming revolution. 17 Governments face a difficult situation due to the heavy demand on social security due to blossoming unemployment and the crash of some superannuation finds. They have to prioritize their reduced taxation income to meet these demands while implementing measures to cope with the growing environmental and urban problems. 18 Manufacturers and retailers are having difficulty in adapting to a reduced demand for throwaway stuff and an increasing demand for simple, durable tools and materials. 19 The housing market, particularly for large, energy in-efficient homes in outer suburbs, has collapsed. Developers have largely disappeared from the large cities and have adopted a more pragmatic approach in the developing regional towns. It seems to be quite clear that even with the most optimistic view of what will happen in the near future, most in Australian society will have to face up to a dire, traumatic power down at a disconcerting rate. It is to be hoped that emerging people power will rise to the challenge of easing the process as much as possible. What happens, however, will also be very dependent on overseas developments. Denis Frith

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