Video & Transcript: Caucasus Geopolitics: Trump’s Armenia–Azerbaijan Deal Explained | Syriana Analysis

Kevork Almassian interviews Hovik Manucharyan on the subject of US President Trump's bizarre corridor 'deal' with Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia and Turkey.  This very enlightening interview is led into with an extract from Trump's meeting with Armenian President Pashinyan and Azabaijarian President Ilham Aliyev, who are both internationally known as giant sleezes in the region. Aliyev and his family have been installed for over 20 years and are known for graft and corruption and authoritarian government.  Pashinyan is an authoritarian regime-change phenomenon, installed by US-NATO powers, and has been the subject of continuous, ,nation-wide protests. He is infamous for having given Armenia's most precious territory away to Azerbaijan, Armenia's traditional enemy.  It is darkly comedic to watch the evasive and awkward looks on the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents' faces, as  Trump apparently innocently assumes that these two blackguards are doing something honorable and beneficial for  both their countries in this new trade-corridor, which they have ostentatiously named the Trump Corridor.  Shockingly, we see Pashinyan tell Trump specifically not to include freeing political prisoners in the deal, and watching as Trump obediently redacts their names. The corridor itself is historically geopolitically cursed.  To assign its management to US contractors seems like a sure-fire new conflictual disaster in the making.  For details regarding the background of these two countries and the corridor, see: Will Armenia survive President Pashinyan? This article is from a human-corrected electronic transcript.

 

KEVORK ALMASSIAN: Hello. Ladies and gentlemen. And welcome again to Syria analysis. I'm your host, Kevork Almassian. Thank you very much for tuning in to today's special live stream. I appreciate you all whether you're watching the stream on YouTube on Rumble and [?unclear]. Today is a special stream because we are joined by our friend and colleague Hovik Manucharian. He is the co-host of Groong podcast. It's an Armenian podcast in English language providing objective coverage on Armenia Artsakh or, as it is known in the mainstream phase, Ngorno-Karavakh and Armenian diaspora. Whether you're an Armenian or not, if you're interested in these Caucasus Affairs and the Armenian Affairs and the everlasting conflict between the players in the region, you should definitely go and check their Channel. The link is also in the description below. [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCciT1KXwap4PV8-KbsADD5g] Hovic. Thank you so much. How are you doing today?

KEVORK ALMASSIAN: This is uh, as Trump said, it's a great news for the region And he said, finally, he managed to bring peace to the region and the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan even nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize, just like Benjamin Netanyahu did a few weeks ago, when he came to the office and nominated him again to become a peace nominee - peacemaker nominee. I really want to hear your thoughts objectively about this case. What is this deal about? Is this a piece deal? Is this a business deal? Is this the trade route deal? Is this connecting Azerbaijan with [?unclear]?

First of all, what is this deal about? And why [is] the United States the broker, like, why do they need the United States to achieve this deal or peace as he described it?

HOVIK MANUCHARYAN: Well, I think from the perspective of Armenia, I think we have to be honest and say it's nothing except capitulation. But uh, it is amazing that they were able to convince this orange man to sort of, you know, sponsor the deal. With all due respect, it's just a comical because - So we can talk in much more detail, obviously.

But this seems to be a strategic or semi-strategic victory by the United States in terms of encircling Iran, in terms of challenging Russia, from a geopolitical perspective.

And, you know, I can't see any upside for Armenia. I mean, the only upside for Armenia that various commentators, while presenting this as some kind of deal of the century, you know, great breakthrough, the only upside is that they say Armenia won't get invaded.

So if that is the only upside, then essentially this was a negotiation at gunpoint, mediated by the United States. And, given that Trump is now promising to sell weapons to Azerbaijan afterwards, you know, it's interesting how this will bring more peace.

So yeah, it's a very huge contradiction in terms of terms and double speak, as they say. But –

KEVORK: Why do we say that the only upside, uh, let's say, element, in this for Armenians is that Armenia won't be invaded. Like there are multiple factors. For example, I'm reading [from] a few people, who are apparently very in favour of this deal, and they say this will bring enormous business opportunities.  And Armenia will gain billions of dollars, which will be pathed through this territory. And this means that Armenia will tax [these] products, right? So, there will be financial profits for the Armenians.

HOVIK: So, let's talk, let's talk about that. So um you can look at the closest analogy we have which is Georgia, you know, Georgia has this Baku-Tbilisi Railway, which was funded through very cheap Azeri loans, I think to the tune of 400 million dollars. And the revenue, I believe -  there are various estimates, but on the low end, the revenue from that Railway every year is 50 million dollars, just in terms of charging money and, on the upside - like you can ask Chat GPT, you know - there's a public amount of how much goods travel by that railway. I think on top side, that's like 150 million. So that's what we have to look forward to.

But if you consider what Armenia is giving up, just in terms of rights, just in terms of housing, just all [that] wealth that was in, Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), could be measured in hundreds of billions of dollars or truly maybe even upwards of trillions of dollars. S, Armenia won't benefit anything from transportation because Armenia's main trade ally is Russia.

So Armenia has a problem sending his goods fast enough to Russia. And if that problem was to be solved, then Azerbaijan could offer Armenia through its territory, a similar corridor right there. There's actually existing rail infrastructure in Ijeban, which is north of Armenia.[1]  So, from Ijeban, people could travel by rail or goods could travel by rail to, through Azerbaijan to Russia. Now, if, if that deal was on the table, I would say, okay, well, that's something that – okay, Armenia could offer a corridor to/ through Armenia to Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan could offer a corridor through Azerbaijan to Russia. Even closer, there's a - you know how Armenia is very long and narrow?  So, it's very difficult to travel from Northern Armenia or even Central Armemoa - Yerevan, for instance, to Syunic. And given how important Syunic is for us, improving the communication to Syunic will always be beneficial. So, theoretically Azerbaijan could give a corridor through Ijeban to Armenians so that you could go from Ijeban to Syunic. That would be a very beneficial.

I don't see any offer like this to Armenians. The only offer we see is um a railway and maybe even, I don't know, gas infrastructure or other communication through to the southernmost point of Armenia and at the same time Azerbaijan and the leader of the - the dictator of that country, is saying that we must see no Armenians on that route.

So, despite saying that this, uh, deal, preserves Armenian sovereignty, I don't know how you can do that when you say, we're not going to see any Armenians, we're not going to deal with any Armenians, we don't want to declare, we don't want to be searched or, we don't want our, uh, you know … I believe, even one of the Azeri commentators said, ‘Even if, let's say, we have a criminal who is wanted in Armenia - right? Even if they go through this corridor then those criminals must not be apprehended by Armenian forces which is very interesting thing to say. And, you know, from the both sides of the mouth, you know. And then, at the same time, say that Armenia preserves its sovereignty.

So yeah, I mean there'll be some minor revenue but also, considering the negative effects on the Armenian economy, such as, let's say, economic expansion of Turkey and Azerbaijan, further dependence of Armenia upon turkey and Azerbaijan. Those are also secondary issues to consider.

KEVORK: But, there is the argument, Hovik, that Armenians have had enough of conflict and fighting with Azerbaijan and with Turkey, and they want to live in peace. So let's forget the past, and let's agree on this deal. And let's bring on a lasting peace to the region instead of continuous wars, which only recently killed 5000 Armenian soldiers, right?

HOVIK: Yeah.

KEVORK: So, what is the, how, how do we count, how can an Armenian person counter, let’s say, this argument that the people want to live, people want to continue their lives, people don't want to send their sons to die on the front line. Therefore, sooner or later, there has to be some sort of a deal with the neighbours, where you can't live another 100 years of conflict with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

HOVIK: By all means, I think peace is very good and a dignified. Peace is something that we all want, right?

Now, this thing is called a peace treaty, but in reality, first of all, it's not even signed. It's just initialed. But let's not get there yet.  You know peace can mean different mean[ing]s peace can mean [unclear] relations, such as in Versailles. And if we're talking about a peace treaty like the Versailles [Treaty], then we can be sure that it's actually a war treaty.

Now, is this really a peace treaty? Does Azerbaijan really want peace with Armenia? Let's uh let's take one data point, which is that Azerbaijan is probably the only other country, the only country in the world, that bans people entering into their country by nationality. Not by their citizenship, by nationality. If your name ends with IAN and you accidentally end up in the Baku airport, not only can you, will you be kicked out and not allow to enter, but you will be potentially arrested and this has been the policy of the Azerbaijani leadership to this day. Azerbaijan is holding dozens of captives and hostages in Baku. If Azerbaijan was really intending to have goodwill towards Armenia, towards peace, those people would be released, just like Armenia has released all of its prisoners after the 2020 war.  

Now, Azerbaijani schools. We all know that even in grade schools, in Azerbaijan, there's hatred preached towards Armenians. I mean, we don't want to go into too much detail, uh but uh, let's just come to the so-called peace treaty - which was, as I said, only initialled - it represents a huge time bomb in and of itself. I mean, it's a - let's not even look at it. But even before we reached a peace treaty, Azerbaijan is demanding preconditions to, before we sign before Armenia signs.

KEVORK: Which are?

HOVIK:  One of those peace conditions is that Armenia must change its constitution. That means asking upwards of 700 000 Armenians to go to the voting booth and, with their own hands, [unclear] And there isn't an Armenian family today that doesn't have a relative or someone who died in these wars, right? So, with their own hands, these people are supposed to go and adopt a constitution that is basically capitulative in nature.

The only purpose of this constitution is to submit to Aliev’s demands. One of those demands is in the Preamble of the Constitution. It says, you know, it refers to the petition for reunification of Armenia and Artsakh. It has been ruled by the Armenian Constitutional Court as not legally binding, not binding, but Azerbaijan wants that removed.

And I just don't see,  700 000 -  not only [do] 700 000 Armenians, which is a quorum, have to -  So if only 700 000 Armenians go to the voting booth, 100 per cent of them have to vote, “Yes,” in order for this new Constitution to pass. Which means, essentially, that this will never happen no matter how much - unless you know, you beat everyone, or you invade Yerevan, and take it.

So that tells me that the intention of leadership, by putting this as a precondition to the peace treaty, is not peace. They put a precondition that can never be satisfied, unless there's another war and all of Armenia gets - God forbid - you know, all of Armenia gets conquered.

So that's what we're talking about. And so, I'm not even talking about the other demands by Azerbaijan of paying 150 billion dollars, which is six times Armenia’s GDP as reparation; bringing, settling Armenia with hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanies, who they claim had been refugees even though they left on their own volition. 

 

09:59

Meanwhile there's no talk of Artsakh refugees going back. You know, you would have to have some kind of a dignity, right? You would have to have give the Artsakh the right to go back to their homelands, the right to go see the graves of their loved ones, which is something that they don't have today, and you're asking: Okay, you forget about that we're not even talking about that. You have to go change your Constitution and accept all of our demands. And then we can have this corridor and maybe we won't shoot at you or maybe we will, who knows?

KEVORK: So correct me if I'm wrong. I'm going to summarise what you said in the past 15 minutes:  Azerbaijan is going to get a corridor which links or connects the Azerbaijani territory to Nakhchivan [exclave of Azerbaijan, a city 450 km (280 mi) west of Baku], and eventually to Turkey, and Turkey will have now unlimited access to Azerbaijan and Central Asia. The territory will not be controlled by the Armenians, but rather will be protected by American contractors in this manner. And American companies will build this road and bring infrastructure and bring investment there. Additionally, the Armenian prisoners of War are not included in this deal. The Armenian Artsakh, the return of the refugees to Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), is not included. And, in contrast, now the Azerbaijanis want for the refugees to return to Armenia proper. So, what does Armenia literally gain from this? And if this is the case, we are now criticising, let's say the US or Azerbaijan or being critical because it's not in the favour of the Armenians. But where is the Armenian government in this regard? If the Armenian government should be the guarantor of the rights of the Armenians, what does the Armenian government at least get from this?. Why would they [be] so interested and excited, if this doesn't serve the interests of the Armenians?

HOVIK: Look, I think that the Armenian governments the best that could be said about the Armenian government is it is just another, uh, leadership that has been capitulated, which is why the Armenian opposition wanted to replace [Prime Minister] Pashinyan, at least negotiate with Azerbaijan by someone who doesn't have that, uh, albatross across their neck, and all those potential downsides.

Like so, uh, I mean many speculate, just like with Zelensky, if Pashinyan ever loses power, then his security, at least in Armenia, is not guaranteed. Ah, you know, you can say for good reasons, for bad reasons, but I think that, you know, there are a lot of people. There are a lot of parents whose children's lives have been sacrificed for this and you cannot you know, force them to accept. They have paid the most ultimate price, what are you going to enforce them to do? Just like sort of force them to accept it? Their children's death as some kind of a consolation prize for a railway and a transport corridor for Azerbaijanis?

So this is why I think that the Armenian leadership, maybe, I mean that's the best, you know, sort of thing that I would say, is that the Armenian leadership is scared and is looking for a way to stay in power. And if they agree and sign and do everything that the Turks and Azerbaijanies are saying, maybe they will receive the support of Baku and Ankara. And even if there is regime change, or even if there's a change of power, through elections, then Baku and Ankara, may intervene.

Because we remember what happened in 2020 early 2021 when Pashinyan signed that capitulation of November 2020, the Army threatened, uh not threatened, the Army backed the protesters on the streets who were out for Pashinyan’s head. Pashinyan was in a bunker.

And what happened was Turkey and Azerbaijan threatened that they should intervene to prevent these revanchist forces in Armenia. And, unfortunately, we don't know the full story of this, what happened in the back room deals, or which countries intervened or didn't intervene. But I believe the army leadership at the time decided that they were not going to go to the option of force, and they backed down.

But, you know, those tensions are always bubbling underneath and they're not gonna subside by any peace deal whatsoever.

KEVORK: I will show you a video which I watched today on X. I'm not sure if this is correct or if it is cut, let's say, edited. You could enlighten us even more. This is one of the videos when or where Trump mentions, the release of 23 Armenian hostages in Baku prisons. And he wants to include that into the document.

 

So, Pashinyan advises Trump not to include the release of 23 Christian or Armenian hostages in Baku prisons into the document, then attentively looks to see if they are included into the final document. And he was relaxed when he realised they are not. So this is a video when Trump mentions the Armenian hostages or prisoners of War in as a represents and the facial expressions of Pashinyan changes into someone who is definitely not wanting for the prisoners of war to return and then he looks into document just to be sure if this is included there. Let's take a look. 

 

So, did he really advise Trump not to include the release of Armenian prisoners of War from Baku prisons?  Did I hear him correctly? Or this is just an edited video?

 

HOVIC: Lookyou saw the video, I can't say anything other than to the video, but I can say that Pashinyan does not want any of those prisoners. Maybe a few of them are not famous, but among those prisoners are the three presidents of Artsakh [Nagorno-Karabakh]. They know the entire history of Artsakh.  Among the prisoners are leaders of the army of Artsakh. If they are ever in Yerevan, they will be able to tell exactly what Pashinyan said for them to do and not do.

So, I would bet everything that I had that Pashinyan doesn't want those people back. Among the prisoners is also Ruben Vardanyan (https://www.azatutyun.am/a/33346985.html), who poses a serious threat because he was, you know, on the path to go into politics and he's a billionaire and he would have an easy time winning any election over Pashinyan.  So I think that Pashinyan is scared shitless of Ruben Vardanyan, ever coming to Armenia. Pashinyan doesn't want those people back in Armenia, unfortunately.

KEVORK: So, we have a leader in Armenia who doesn't want citizens of Armenia to return from Baku prisons because they could be a political challenge and headache for him. And this means he's basically caring about power and authority and his power and authority over the national interest.

This is what I'm trying to distinguish here, right, because –

HOVIK: It is truly about, I mean, there are some people around him who have been groomed for decades, by USAID, Soros, and they're very pro-US, and their goal from Day One, since he came to power via coup, in 2018, has been to take Armenia out of the Russian orbit and enter the EU-NATO orbit.

KEVORK: So what is wrong? What is wrong? What is wrong? This is the question, right? What is wrong with wanting to move Armenia into the transatlantic orbit? Because people are asking, even in the in the chat.  Where were the Armenian allies from all this? They didn't come in support of the Armenians.

HOVIK: I think that many of you are listeners and your viewers are probably sufficiently - have viewed other videos by real politic thinkers such as Merscheimer and whatnot. And it, I mean you just have to look at the map, right?

I mean, despite the situation, despite the cards where they're dealt with, Russia will never be as close and allied to Armenia as Turkey is to Azerbaijan. Same with Iran. But to deny that Russia and Iran have strategic interests in Armenia being a strong Christian nation, is to be insane, because yes, Russia did exhibit some kind of some level of neutrality - I wouldn't say enmity - but there was, you know, we didn't get from Russia anything, everything, that Azerbaijan got from Turkey, but I believe that if Armenia played its card right, then we would have lost little. And definitely, you know, I'm not even saying if Armenia played its cards right. What the current leadership is doing, is another Zelinsky act and we know how that ends up. So you know, uh, I think one of the IGRC generals said that what Armenia is doing is a worse mistake than Zelensky, because at least with Ukraine, you have just one big enemy on your borders, which is Russia. With Armenia, you're going to irritate two large enemies with very powerful armies, Iran and Russia. And I don't know what the benefit of that is.

I think you shared this comment from the IRGC commander on your page and this was, I think this one. I just want to read to the people what the Iranian, IRGC General said, in this case.

“IRGC Aliyev and Pashinyan’s ‘Zangezur Gamble’ Worse than Zelensky’s Mistake.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard political deputy General Yadollah Javani warned Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev that their decision to involve the US and NATO in the Caucasus is ‘an even greater mistake than Zelensky’s.’

Javani said that had the two leaders considered the consequences, they would not have fallen for ‘the gamble of the risk-taking player Trump.’ He compared their move to Zelensky’s miscalculation that provoked Russia – only this time, the fallout could be far worse.

Zelensky’s blunder, Javani noted, brought Ukraine into direct conflict with Russia. But Aliyev and Pashinyan’s White House deal – granting the U.S a 99 year exclusive lease for the Zangezur corridor has united multiple powers against him. This destructive act, Giovanni warned, will not be ignored by Iran, Russia, or India.”

Now, at the same time the president of Iran, Pezeshkian, said, “Calm down, guys, this is not really a horrible deal. Let's not exaggerate about the implications of this deal.”

And, in any ways, why would anyone be worried What Iran says in this case, when Iran has proven in the past two years, according to many commentators that they haven't acted in protection of their own geopolitical interest in West Asia, which led to this situation now that the U.S and Israel are on the doorstep of Iran itself, right?

HOVIK: Yeah, and I've been critical of this as well. Yes, I think that, you know, as an Armenian, who has a traitor in power. I think it's, uh, you know, uh, right. 

10:12

It's ironic that I would criticise the leadership of Iran, but I think that many times in the past, they have not been very bold in their actions and they have tried to strike a balance and appease the regime, the regimes, both Turkey and Azerbaijan. And as we're seeing Turkey and Azerbaijan's goals, don't take into account any good will from Pezeshkian, or any of the multiple Pezeshkians that end up in Iran.

So yes, there is a problem with Iranian leadership talking out of two sides of their mouth. And unfortunately, I hope that that can be rectified, but we also saw the humiliating pictures of Pezeshkian in occupied [?Stepkanovec], right? Hugging each other and then, like he was sitting and Aliev came into the room, and no-one stood up except Pezeshkian stood up like, you know, a school child. That was a very, I think for our Iranian friends, I think that was a very humiliating picture,  and I don't know, uh, you know, they tell me that the leadership, the strategic leadership of the country, policy of the country is decided by Ayatollah Khamenei, but in this case, we're seeing that, at least publicly in terms of PR, in terms of rhetoric, this is having a negative effect, because the country's leadership is not talking in unison.

KEVORK: [(The following is housekeeping for his podcast.) Before I continue this discussion with you, I just want to thank our friend with access for moderating, the live chat, as usual greatly and he's creating a very good environment for the people to have respectful conversation, for the people to learn and share their opinions. Regardless, if you agree with us or not guys, you are so free to share whatever you want. As long as there is no slandering and calling each other's mother's name.

So that would be amazing in the comments and I believe the vast majority of you are here interested in learning. And most of you are older than me you, most of you have in my father's age. So I really, I really love that really. Um, but there's sometimes some trolls come and start causing trouble. So we want to really have a good environment for you also to share your opinions without being trolled by someone. So, thank you so much -really great access for the moderation.

And guys, for those who watching this stream now, on YouTube on Rumble and Dungeon world, the link of the podcast of jovicii's cohost on a podcast, which covers the Armenian Affairs, the diaspora - and also, they are now focusing on the Caucases - the link is in the description below. You can just click on it and subscribe after this stream is over. (End Housekeeping.)]

I just want to share with you an opinion from Iran, which is critical of the Iranian policy, vis a vis Armenia, Azerbaijan and this deal basically.

So, this is the translated analysis from an Iranian expert on the Caucuses.

“The recent Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement, brokered by Trump and granting the US 99 year management of the Zangezur Corridor is a geopolitical defeat that has been taking shape not today, but over two decades of our negligence.  Over the past two decades, Iran has gradually lost its historical influence in the Caucasus. Instead of rebuilding its soft and hard power, it has continued a wishful thinking foreign policy. In the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, we could have been a balanced mediator but, by siding with Baku, we handed the opportunity to Moscow and Ankara and were excluded from the negotiation process.  The US, through Zangezur, completes the ring of pressure on Iran. Turkey opens its Turanian route to Central Asia. Russia, despite losing its influence, is not as concerned as Iran about alternative energy routes. The European Union gains non-Russian access to Central Asian energy resources and, China, without an active, Iranian role, and without completed corridor routes, sets its own paths that bypass Iran.

Iran's share of trade with the Caucasus, is less than 5 percent, and now our only non-Turkish, non-Azerbaijani route to the region is gone.

U.S presence at this point turns our North Western border into part of Washington’s security environment. Just as the treaty of Turkmenchay recorded Iran's earlier defeats, the Zangezur agreement cements our long-standing decline.

This situation is not the product of others’ conspiracies but the result of ignoring the logic of power and replacing it with wishful narratives of historical influence.”

So, you have people in Iran correctly evaluating this geopolitical - I don't want to call it a downfall, but it's definitely Iran is getting encircled. Every day, one of the ways they are doing it in Syria, they have done it after the regime change anyways, but they are now building this David's Corridor in Syria, which will - Israel will have the opportunity to project its geopolitical influence, let's say into Iraq, especially into the [?Anbar] region, and coming, two, three steps closer to Iran. And now with the Zangezur Corridor, I think Iran sooner, or later will find itself in a very dire situation. And under such circumstances, they have to make a choice, either to shift their NFGN resources into countering the Turkish Azeri [in] Alliance with Israel and the United States that they're coming after Iran in the Caucasus, or continue the struggle of power in the Middle East, which I believe they will choose the Caucasus because if they still have influence or its their backyard, anyways there.

HOVIK: Yeah, Yeah, definitely. I mean there are a lot of questions, right? So, you know, you have a US company managing this Corridor. How are they going to control the traffic? You know, how much east-west traffic are they going to allow versus north-south? So, Pezeshkian think that, ‘Hey you know, this doesn't violate our red lines,’ it's very dubious. But also, I think that the larger play here that player that we're also ignoring is China, because China has this Belt and Road initiative and it would like to use this Corridor. But with the US company, controlling this Corridor, how are they going to allow Chinese to go through? And, if there is a war or if there's any kind of tension between the two countries, they all find reasons to maybe inspect Chinese Goods more, or inspect you know Iranian and Russian goods more. So, the US has all the leverage now - if this thing goes through.

Right now, this is just declaration. So if this thing goes through and is built, the other thing I have to mention, we don't we don't know the details of this, the full details of this agreement, but there's something about revenue sharing, you know, I think 30 of the Revenue.  And I don't know if this is verified but this is complicated because not just the revenue sharing because, I guess, if it goes through Armenia but Azerbaijan gets some of the revenue, is it fully your sovereignty? But in addition to that, Armenia is part of the Eurasian Economic Union which has its own Customs Rules, and if this Corridor allows different Customs rules or no customs or, then that also presents a lot of legal challenges.

I guess those are all less - minor things, than total capitulation of Armenia and subjugation of Armenia to the Turkish Empire. But uh you know those are also things that I think that Russians as part of the EAU and Iran, which has a special agreement with the EAU, would be very interested in knowing about.

But, you know, so the Russian inactivity in this has been explained, I think by being busy at least until today, by being busy in Ukraine. And also, I think, that since we have this meeting in Alaska, maybe the Russians are not making too much noise about this because of that? They don't want to steal the spotlight or, you know, change narrative.

But I think that Russians eventually will also realise that this was a huge shortcoming and a mistake on their side. And how are they going to correct it, now? I'm not sure, but to me, it seems like this is going to become a battleground for a new war in the future.

KEVORK: So you're worried about a battlefield in this region?

HOVIK: Yes, yes. I mean, it's not a peace -  It's nothing close to peace. It’s going to be a prescription for war, whether it's now or 10 years into the future. But, you know, I think that there's been a lot of talk about, also, the US preventing the rise of BRICS. So, are BRICS going to be okay with this, uh, sort of block on their North South Communication? India is also a player here which probably doesn't want restrictions on this north-south trade. So, a lot of questions meant to be answered.

KEVORK: I will show a video of our friend and colleague Muhammad Marandi, and we are discussing this video with great respect for his personality and his person. However, we are discussing ideas here and this is a video, which I watched on your X-account - which to be honest with you, I was really shocked because I thought Marandi, after what he supported Azeri takeover of Artsakh in 2020 and 2023, and I have warned him publicly and in private about the implications of it, and after we saw the implications of it against Iran, I was really shocked to see that. This is a new video, right? This is only after the signature of this deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Basically, he is continuing to give Baku legitimacy in this region. Let's take a look.

[From an interview by George Galloway of Prof Seyed Marandi]

George Galloway: “He has negotiated the problem, build a trump Tower on it, between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Ancient foes indeed. They were at war not even a 12-month ago, but, hey presto! They've come together in Washington, and Trump has got himself a new piece of territory that he's going to be responsible for. Tell us what that's all about and what Iran's reaction to it is.”

Prof Marandi: “Well, first, I'd like to give a very brief history and that is when Armenia launched an attack on the Republic of Azerbaijan decades ago, the Iranians condemned that and in fact, the Iranians were training volunteers in the Republic of Azerbaijan so that they can retake back what was legitimately theirs. 

 

10:36

And then the Americans ordered Aliev, the current president, to expel the Iranians. So, the liberation of his own territory was delayed for three decades because he obeyed the United States. And I've shown footage on Twitter of Iranians training these [?Azaris?]. Now, it's the other way around. With the support of the Israeli regime and Erdogan, the Republic of Azabaajan attacked Armenia. They liberated territory that was theirs in accordance with international law. Of course, they ethnically cleansed the Armenians, which is a huge violation and a crime against humanity, but they took back their territory. But the Iranians have said that, if Aliev tries to take Armenia, it will mean war.”

KEVORK: So you commented on this video by saying, “Since 1979, Iranians have framed the struggle of the Palestinians as self-determination and liberation - a very logical argument that is based in international law. Sadly, this logic is lost. When Iranians who speak about Artsakh, the truth is that the war in Artsakh for 30 years was about self-determination. Armenians were successful in holding off the ethnic cleansing and genocide for 30 years, until they weren't. Yes, I understand Iran is in a very sensitive spot. Yada yada yada. But that doesn't give right to anyone to rewrite history.”

You know, the other day I bought the example of Palestine as well in my show. And I said, Iran says that Israel is an illegitimate political entity, and although, under international law or under the UN charter, Israel is now a recognised political entity - but they say, ‘We don't recognise the legitimacy of Israel because the beginning was unfair and there was an ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians.’

So, Palestinians have the right for self-determination. Why Iranians do not also give the same right for the Armenians for self-determination, knowing that in the 20s, it was Stalin who gave this region to Azerbaijan? At the beginning, this was the newly formed socialist Republic of Azerbaijan, something that is similar to the Brits when they invited the Zionist and Jewish refugees to Palestine and then they divided the country into two.

So I don't understand why the Iranians want to apply this logic there, but not here.  

HOVIK: Let me give a little bit more background because, you know, this land has been one of the most Historic Armenian lands for thousands of years.  I don't want to go, you know -  Azerbaijans will claim that, you know, they were the precursors, but with all due respect, there's historic literature. It's written on all the sides of the churches, unless Aliev has managed to scrape it off. So, this is best example of an ancient people who had a right to live without harassment, without genocide. And the only reason why Armenians rose up is because their rights were being violated throughout the Soviet Union throughout the  - if Armenians were part of Azerbaijan, and they were respected, just like Armenians in Iran were, I'm pretty sure this thing would never happen. But the fact of the matter is that, even during the Soviet times when the Armenian Church in Armenia, was allowed to function in a limited way, all the churches in our Artsakh (Ngorno-Karabakh),  with a 90 per cent Armenian population were closed down and any expression of Armenian identity was repressed. And the whole issue started when Armenians said that, Hey, you know, we we want to petition the USSR to be part of Armenia because we’re culturally Armenian. And the response from the Azerbaijani regime in 1988 was that there was ethnic cleansing. The [?Sungaid?] Pogrom was the first major pogrom. Hundreds of Armenians were massacred. I mean, it's very brutal, it’s very gory. And then it continued afterwards. There was a Marava Pogrom, there was Baku. There was a Kirova. My father was born in Kirova, which is Ganja today, known as Ganjar or [in] Armenian [as] Gonzak and I will never be able to go back. But um , so when Marandi, with all the respect to him, says that Armenians, attacked Azerbaijan in the early 1990s, that is clear historical revisionism. I'm sorry, Professor Marandi. You are being a historical revisionist when you say that and I hope that you can, um, allow maybe debate, someone, a scholar in that matter or allow an alternative voice to yours. Because, you know, I think, once you investigate history, you will see that, uh, that's incorrect. So, the Armenians had no choice but to fight for self-determination. Self-determination is part of international law and the [unclear ?OSCMS group] throughout these 30 years had, um, you know, highlighted that the principle of self-determination along with territorial eternity, must be considered. It was not, uh, you know, it was not subliminal to, uh, so, you know -  there was no primacy of territorial integrity over self-determination. There are two equal principals and those are cases when, if there's a threat that people are going to be massacred unmatched - just like Palestinians today, you know. We know that if we leave Palestinians in Israel they're going to be ethnically cleansed. They're going to be murdered. They're going to be genocided. That was the threat that was facing [? unclear]. And in those cases, there is a room in international law for secession, for self-determination. And Armenians and Artsakh held the votes in 1991, I believe.

KEVORK: One.

HOVIK: Uh, yes - to fully secede from Azerbaijan, based on, uh, laws of the country at the time, laws of the USSR, and um, you know, so Professor Marandi is forgetting that fact. And, unfortunately, many Iranian analysts are very much afraid to go to that. I mean, I understand that.

So, you know, you have a huge Turkik-speaking population who can be easily swayed, and I understand that. But, at least, the least you can do is not engage in historical revisionism. You can say, I don't want to talk about it. You can say, well, you know, here are the both sides of the story. But you are presenting - um, you know, I don't know - as if that was land owned by someone that Armenians were never part of - you know, owners of - and suddenly Armenians decided to kill the owners of the land and take it over.

This is like - this is not a rental agreement, it's not a real estate issue. This is an issue of people living on their historical lands. And this, the whole sad story is that, you know, patriotic Armenians - we know a lot of people who participated in those wars, we're all being silenced right now, because the main discussion is this corridor. The main discussion is, you know: Don't you even talk about those hundreds of thousands people who have been driven off land, who have been killed. All the discussion is around territories, corridors, and so forth.

KEVORK: I just want to respond to our moderators. As I wish Professor Marandi was here to defend himself. He expressed his opinion on a platform without being challenged and we are sharing just an opposite opinion or a different opinion than his. I will make sure that he gets this clip and what you said. And he also could come to my show and we could have also a respectful and civilised discussion about this case, which I would really highly like to see. I just also want to respond to one of our friends, says the young Turks were behind the Armenian genocide. Actually, there are many genocide didn't only happen in 1915. If you go back to the late 1800s, and the starting from the 1880s, since the Ottoman Empire started to get weaker and weaker, and there were so many massacres happened against the Armenians, the Greek, the Chaldeans, the Alawaites

HOVIK: The Serbs –

KEVORK: - And so many. So the genocide didn’t happen in just one day. When we say that the Armenians commemorate the genocide on the 24th of April 1915 is a date which the most of the killing happened among the Armenians. And this date is not representative of the entire timeline [in] which these massacres happened. One and a half million Armenians didn't die, guys, in one day. So, this is just representative, or a date that the people to remember and commemorate, but the massacres started at least 30 to 40 years before 1915. So, that would be also great to share.

But we are so thankful to you, Hovik, for coming to Syriana analysis and sharing your insights. I have invited, by the way, four different people – Armenians - who share the opinion of Pashinyan, and they are in support of this deal. All of them rejected to come to the show. People ask me. Why don't you invite other people who have a different opinion? And I swear to God that I invited them and I even posted publicly on X, inviting people through comments and encouraging them to come and have a civilised conversation with us, and they all rejected to come. So.

HOVIK: Yeah.

KEVORK: However, we tried to cover this case from our perspective, because we are here Armenians, having opinions. And I have never ever claimed to be neutral on cases, especially when it comes to Armenia. And on Syria, I have been repeatedly telling you, I am biased. So I am biased guys. [Laughs.]

This will be my closing statement, Hovik, John, thank you so much for coming.

HOVIK: Can. I just mention something as well? Uh, you know, I as part of Groong [Podcast], we have also offered Professor Marandi to appear on our podcast. That invitation is still in force, and we would very much love to also see Professor Morandi.

It’s difficult, you know, because he's one of the few voices that accurately represents the Palestinian cause and, uh, you know, some aspects of Iranian foreign policy but in this case, you know, anyway, we talked about it. So thank you. Uh, thank you Kevork, also for inviting me and hopefully, we can also see you on Groong one day.

KEVORK: Definitely. I will. [Housekeeping issues followed]. 

10:47

[1] Ijevan is situated on a railway line that historically connected Armenia with Azerbaijan.